O’er The River, Airline Shares Sink

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images A Japanese plane flying over disputed islands in China’s newly-declared air zone.

Shares of airlines are trading lower this morning, despite speculation that the skids are greased for a merger between American Airlines and U.S. Airways.

On Wednesday, a federal judge cleared the way for American Airlines parent AMR (AAMRQ) to exit bankruptcy, which hastens the merger of American Air and U.S. Airways Group (LCC). Shares of AMR are down nearly 1% this morning, while U.S. Air stock dropped nearly 2%. The merged airline would be up against United Continental Holdings (UAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL), which merged with Northwest. Shares of each are down 1%.

The big transport input cost, fuel, is a factor. Crude oil prices are up about 1.5% today to $93.69 per barrel.

In case you missed it, Barron’s columnist Randall Forsyth is among those of us dreading the cacophany in the skies if cellphone calls become the norm on airplanes. See “That Airline Racket,” Nov. 23.”(subscription required). He noted that airline stocks have …

“… taken off over the past year as the industry’s ‘rationalization’ has meant higher fares, reduced capacity, and fewer amenities for passengers. Some measure of competition still comes from discounters such as Southwest (LUV), JetBlue (JBLU), and Spirit (SAVE). What’s left of antitrust enforcement ought to prevent these cut-rate carriers being scooped up by the big three of the skies, although Jack Hough noted … that Alaska Air (ALK) could draw takeover interest over the long haul (“Merger Mania May Soon Be on the Way,” Nov. 21) (subscription required).

From aerospace and transport analysts at RBC Capital Markets, a brilliant Turkey-Day tidbit written by Robert Stallard, Steven Cahall and Karl Oehlschlaeger:

“Airlines for America is anticipating 1.5% more passengers will fly this Thanksgiving period or ~31k more travelers/day. Load factors are expected to be ~85%. Who’s in the other seats? Maybe some Yukon Golds. Not mashed taters though - Boeing (BA) has been using sacks of potatoes to test signal strength on aircraft for in-flight wifi. To test coverage on aircraft Boeing needed full planes for accurate results but couldn’t get people to sit motionless for days at a time … [but]  potatoes are good human stand-ins due to their water content and chemistry. So if anyone is being obnoxious at your Thanksgiving table consider replacing them with a tater. “

Brent Pushes Towards $110

The spread between Brent and US oil widened on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting ended with many wondering if the bank was going to taper sooner than expected. Brent crude oil traded at $109.58 at 6:15 GMT on Thursday.

Although the Federal Reserve opted not to taper its $85 billion per month asset purchasing plan, investors were surprised by the statements released following the meeting which many took to mean the bank could cut back on its spending sooner rather than later.

Related: PreMarket Primer: Thursday, October 31: BOJ Bullish On Inflation

In the bank's statement following the meeting, many felt the bank took a more hawkish tone than was expected. Though the statement reignited taper woes, most aren't expecting the US central bank to make any sudden moves until early 2014.

Brent prices were buoyed by reports that Libya's crude exports declined even further as protests continued to close down the nation's oilfields. CNBC reported that Eni, an Italian energy company, has reduced its 2014 production outlook, citing the outages in both Libya and Nigeria.

However, talks between Western leaders and Iranian officials have kept a ceiling above prices as the two sides move closer to an agreement on Iran's disputed nuclear program. Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani has said he is willing to make the nation's nuclear research facilities more transparent in exchange for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil.

The unprecedented cooperation between the two sides has many wondering if Iranian oil could flood the market relatively soon.

Posted-In: Federal ReserveNews Commodities Forex Global Pre-Market Outlook Markets Best of Benzinga

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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First Solar: Happy Days are Here Again

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) reported third quarter 2013 results after the markets closed Thursday afternoon. The solar panel maker posted quarterly adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.28 on revenues of $1.265 billion. In the third quarter of 2012, the company reported EPS of $1.27 on revenues of $839.15 million. The Thomson Reuters estimates called for EPS of $1.00 and $988.63 million in revenue.

Shares were halted in after-hours trading before the results were announced.

The startling jump in revenues is the result of first revenue recognition at the company's Desert Sunlight project and the sale of ABW projects in Canada, and higher sales volumes to third-party module-only customers.

5 Best Stocks To Invest In 2014

Even after such a huge boost in revenues and earnings, First Solar lowered its full-year revenue guidance from a range of $3.6 billion to $3.8 billion to a new range of $3.4 billion to $3.6 billion. Estimated gross margin rose from a prior range of 22% to 23% to a new range of 24% to 26%. The operating income forecast rose from a range of $390 to $410 million to a new range of $470 to $490 million. The estimated EPS range has risen from $3.75 to $4.25 to a new range of $4.25 to $4.50.

The lowered revenue forecast is a bit of a puzzler. If the company continues making more module-only sales to third-party customers, the lower revenues could lead to more profit if the pricing is right. Gross margin is rising after all. From the look of the company's guidance, they've got it figured out. Capital spending is also forecast down by $50 million on each end of the prior range, so that helps boost profits too.

The company's CEO said:

The third quarter marks a key milestone in our Company's progress in achieving the strategic objectives we outlined during our Analyst Day event in April. During the quarter we delivered on several key objectives, including additional bookings of 860MWdc, significant reductions to our module manufacturing cost, and strong financial performance. With these encouraging results achieved, we move forward, focusing on strengthening our leadership position in the marketplace and achieving our strategic objectives for future success.

Shares are up about 8.5% in after-hours at $54.90 in a 52-week range of $22.20 to $59.00. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $42.00 before today's report.

Tapering speculation on back burner after weak jobs report

The weaker-than-expected September employment report released Tuesday should place any speculation over a reduction in quantitative easing squarely on the back burner for at least the rest of the year.

“The labor market participation rate is now down around 63%, and the improvement in the employment picture is slowing,” said Steve Van Order, fixed-income strategist at Calvert Investments.

His assessment is in line with consensus estimates that the Federal Reserve could start reducing its five-plus-year QE program in March. He added, however, “I wouldn't be surprised if they waited even longer.”

Tuesday's jobs report showed that U.S. employers added just 148,000 jobs last month, below expectations for 180,000 jobs. There were 193,000 jobs added in August.

The latest employment data aren't expected to change the 7.3% unemployment rate.

“When it comes to Fed tapering, you have to look at it from the perspective that it is going to be data-dependent, and the Fed is not happy with the pace of growth,” said Wilmer Stith, co-manager of the Wilmington Broad Market Bond Fund (ARKIX).

The weakening employment data are used by the Fed to address its dual mandate of lowering unemployment and managing inflation.

Beyond the disappointing employment data, the Fed is factoring in the fact that interest rates have been rising since Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggested in May that it would start to reduce its pace of bond purchases last month, Mr. Stith said.

5 Best Cheap Stocks To Own For 2014

“The Fed was surprised at how much conditions tightened over the course of the late summer,” he said.

For example, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is up nearly 100 basis points from where it was in late May.

The other factor delaying the start of tapering is continuing political uncertainty in Washington, Mr. Stith said.

“True to form, Congress could not resolve anything with the president and we saw a 16-day government shutdown,” he said. “That will not be helping economic growth.”

There also is an additional factor: Janet Yellen's nomination by President Barack Obama to replace Mr. Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Ms. Yellen, who could take over before March, is considered to have dovish leanings, meaning that she is likely to support an extension of the monthly purchase of $85 billion in bonds.

“If she decides to start tapering in March, that's probably OK, but if she waits until the end of 2014 to start taperin! g, that is sowing the seeds for the next credit bubble,” said Doug Cote, chief investment strategist at ING U.S. Investment Management.

Despite the state of unemployment and inflation, he thinks that the U.S. economy is strong enough to start standing on its own without the support of what he calls “QE infinity.”

“We have record corporate profits, there is a manufacturing resurgence in this country and consumers are spending $125 billion a month,” Mr. Cote said. “Risk is substantially diminished, so it is incongruous that we can't start tapering.”

With regard to tapering, Mr. Cote thinks that the Fed is more focused on preventing a currency market meltdown originating in Asia and India.

“In May, when the Fed announced it might taper, U.S. interest rates started rising as the speculative money in Asia and India started moving back to the U.S.,” he said. “Those currencies and equity markets started plummeting, and it reminded me of the 1997 Asian currency crisis where hot money fled the market.”

Even with the S&P 500 up more than 24% this year on the heels of a 16% gain last year, Mr. Cote said that the Fed is pushing too hard and too long on the quantitative-easing pedal.

“I like to see markets going up, but not if it's creating the next black-swan event, and this speculative search for yield sows the seeds for the next black swan,” he said. “Bursting of bubbles is what brought us to the 2008 crisis, and quantitative easing is not a free lunch.”

The S&P 500 rose 0.57% to close at 1,754.67 today, and the yield on the 10-year fell 3.7%

Is J.C.Penney Finally Seeing a Turnaround?

With shares of J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) trading around $9, is JCP an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

J.C. Penney is a retailer operating more than 1,000 department stores in just about every state in the United States and Puerto Rico. Its business consists of selling merchandise and services to consumers through its department stores and website. It sells family apparel and footwear, accessories, fine and fashion jewelry, beauty products through Sephora, and home furnishings. The company has not done too well in recent years, but it is doing what it can to be a top provider of apparel and related products.

J.C. Penney shares surged after the struggling retailer released its financial results for the fiscal third-quarter that ended November 2. Penney reported a third-quarter loss that widened to $489 million, or $1.94 a share, but shares still climbed after CEO Mike Ulmann offered improved sales forecasts and indications that the company is on the mend. The retailer finished at the close in New York up 8.38 percent at $9.44.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Mixed

J.C. Penney stock has been getting hit hard in the past couple of years. However, the stock may be seeing a turnaround as it begins to surge higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, J.C. Penney is trading between its rising key averages, which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of J.C. Penney options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
J.C. Penney Options	76.36%	0%	0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
December Options	Average	Average
January Options	Average	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call and put buyers or sellers, all neutra over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on J.C. Penney’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for J.C. Penney look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	246.43%	-297.01%	-110.67%	-518.09%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	-5.06%	-11.88%	-16.40%	-28.41%
Earnings Reaction	8.38%	5.97%	-4.15%	7.37%

J.C. Penney has seen improving earnings and decreasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been optimistic about J.C. Penney’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has J.C. Penney stock done relative to its peers, Macy’s (NYSE:M), Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD), Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS), and sector?

	J.C. Penney	Macy’s	Sears	Kohl’s	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	-53.40%	33.88%	55.80%	30.04%	17.58%

J.C. Penney has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

J.C. Penney aims to provide the latest apparel and household products to consumers and companies across most of the United States and Puerto Rico. The company’s shares surged after the struggling retailer released its financial results for the fiscal third-quarter that ended November 2. The stock has struggled in recent years, but is now surging higher. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been improving and revenues have been declining, which has left investors optimistic about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, J.C. Penney has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what J.C. Penney does this quarter.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2014

About�a week ago, Wall Street was biting small cap pet stock Petmed Express Inc (NASDAQ: PETS) for not living up to its earnings expectations�- meaning it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock�and compare its performance with other pet stocks like mid cap PetSmart, Inc (NASDAQ: PETM) and small cap VCA Antech Inc (NASDAQ: WOOF). I should also mention that we have recently added Petmed Express to our SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) portfolio because we think the stock is undervalued in the pet space and has tremendous growth potential�moving forward.

What is Petmed Express Inc?

Small cap Petmed Express was founded in 1996 and is America�� largest pet pharmacy, delivering prescription and non-prescription pet medications and other health products for dogs and cats at competitive prices direct to the consumer through its 1-800-PetMeds toll free number and on the Internet through its website at www.1800petmeds.com. The company is a�licensed pharmacy to dispense prescription medications in all 50 states with over 3,000 SKUs, including a variety of private label products all made in the United States.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2014: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By John Maxfield]

  Shares of older, industrial companies like Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) are leading the Dow lower this afternoon. One reason could be speculation that the Federal Reserve will taper its monthly bond purchases by the end of the year. According to The Wall Street Journal, "more than half of the 49 economists who participated in the latest ... forecasting survey" believe that it will do so.

• [By Alex Planes]

  Big labor loses big
  On April 14, 1992, the same day its future Dow compatriot beat back Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) legal assault, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) gained a critical victory against the United Automobile Workers union. More than 12,000 workers stopped picketing Caterpillar's Peoria, Ill., plant, despite having called the company's offer "a mean-spirited proposal" up until the end of the strike. The five-month action was the first in a series of major union efforts against the heavy-equipment manufacturer, and the UAW's capitulation in the spring of 1992 set the tone for the strikes yet to come.

• [By Dan Caplinger]

  Rather than focusing on big market milestones, it's important on quiet days to look at which stocks are making more dramatic moves. Today, for instance, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) is leading the Dow's gainers with a rise of 1.7%. Quietly, the construction equipment giant has seen its shares bounce 10% off their April lows, even though prospects for the overall global economy haven't begun to rebound markedly. Caterpillar has a long way to go to recover its highs from earlier in the year, but greater investor optimism about cyclical stocks could lead to a new leg for the bull market, given its reliance until now on more defensive stocks like consumer products companies.

• [By Justin Loiseau]

  Getting back to the Dow, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) was among the index's worst performers yesterday. Shares dropped 1.56% as the company continued to reel from a sales and earnings miss earlier this week. Caterpillar openly admitted that its short-term growth is nothing to love (2% this year), but if other better-than-expected natural-resources reports are any evidence, this latest sell-off may simply be the result of over-optimists (read: "China alpha bulls") finally opting out. For mining companies and Caterpillar alike, investors will need to keep a close watch on commodities prices in the coming months, as well as global growth in key expansion areas like China.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2014: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Eric Volkman]

  Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP  ) is reaching into its corporate bowl for a fresh payout to shareholders. The company has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.62 per share. This will be paid on July 8 to stockholders of record as of June 19. That amount matches the firm's previous distribution, which was paid in early April. Prior to that, Tupperware Brands was rather less generous, handing out $0.36 per share.

• [By Dan Caplinger]

  Where growth will come from
  One area that Newell Rubbermaid still has to tap fully is emerging markets. The company has done a good job of expanding overseas, with 17% annual growth in Latin America. But with barely a quarter of its sales coming from outside the U.S. and Canada, the company has a lot further to go. Storage rival Tupperware (NYSE: TUP  ) gets fully 60% of its total revenue from emerging markets, and it too has seen impressive gains in South America as well as the Asia-Pacific region.

• [By Brian Pacampara]

  Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, household products company Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

• [By John Udovich]

  Everyone is familiar with�the Tupperware brand from�consumer products stock Tupperware Brands Corporation (NYSE: TUP) and you are probably familiar with the brands�of mid cap stock Jarden Corp (NYSE: JAH) along with small cap stocks Libbey Inc (NYSEMKT: LBY) and Lifetime Brands Inc (NASDAQ: LCUT); but what about the stocks themselves? Chances are, their brands or products are right under your nose at home and you probably don�� know anything about the mid cap or small cap stock behind them.

Hot Warren Buffett Companies To Invest In 2014: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By David Smith]

  A mixed quarter
  These shortfalls did not occur in a quarter in which the services group has languished and generally disappointed at earnings time. Indeed, the figurative chieftain of the group, Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) , reported precisely a week earlier that it not only had topped the forecasts of the Wall Street seers, but in fact had also outdone the prior year's results. Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI  ) didn't accomplish the latter feat, but it topped the analysts' prognostications and even managed to radiate an air of optimism about the North American onshore picture, recently the bane of the group's existence.

• [By David Smith]

  It's now two to one among the big oil-field services companies regarding the North American oil and gas markets. Through Monday, Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) , the largest company in the sector had expressed concern about the market and its short-term prospects, while Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) , the second-biggest member of the group, joined Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI  ) in assessing our continent's activity levels more positively.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jon C. Ogg]

  Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) was maintained as a Buy but was removed from the prized Conviction Buy list at Goldman Sachs.

  Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) was raised to Buy from Hold with a $79 price target at Argus.

• [By Victor Reklaitis]

  Today�� movers & shakers: Retailers have dropped in the wake of disappointing quarterly results or outlooks. Target Corp. (TGT) �was down 4% after posting weaker margins and earnings at its U.S. business, while Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) �dropped 4% after its earnings fell in the third quarter. Read more in the Movers & Shakers column.

• [By Dan Moskowitz]

  The shiniest dollar
  Many investors and analysts like to debate which dollar store offers the best investment opportunity. The truth is that Dollar General, Dollar Tree Stores (NASDAQ: DLTR  ) , and Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO  ) are all likely to be quality long-term investments.

2 Triple-A Tech Stocks to Buy

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When we talk about tech stocks the attention often falls on the larger, more established tech stocks. However, as the market advance thins out investors might want to focus on the smaller, fast-growing tech stocks.

When these smaller tech stocks attract the attention of Wall Street, the massive buying pressure provided by the large pools institutional money can turn these stocks into rocket ships. We can use an objective research tool like Portfolio Grader to find stocks with the very best fundamentals that are likely to attract buying pressure and help power your portfolio higher.

Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) is the leading provider of investor communications and technology-driven-solutions to banks, broker-dealers, mutual funds, and corporations globally. BR makes the back-office systems that allow these companies to process forms and communicate with their customer base on critical matters.

Broadridge provides services to retail and institutional brokerage firms, global banks, specialty trading firms and more. The company is on fire, with earnings up 72% so far this year and up 67% in the latest quarter. This type of performance was picked up by Portfolio Grader, and last month the stock was upgraded to the highest grade. This “triple-A” stock — which earns "A" grades for fundamentals, quantitative, and overall grade — is a “strong buy.”

Sparton Corporation (SPA) provides electromechanical systems and operates in three segments: medical devices, complex systems and defense and security systems. The medical devices segment makes devices used in diagnostic, therapeutic, surgical, and laboratory applications. Complex devices makes printed circuit assemblies used in military, aerospace, industrial and commercial OEMs, while the defense and security segment designs products for defense applications.

SPA has shown earnings growth of 42% so far this year and continues to accelerate with a 67% increase in its latest quarter. The company has also posted two consecutive positive earnings surprises. This type of superior fundamental performance is reflected in its “triple-A” Portfolio Grader ranking, and the stock remains a “strong buy.”

The stock market is focusing on best of the best fundamentals right now, and these two “triple-A” tech stocks are demonstrating the very best fundamental performance.

Louis Navellier is the editor of Blue Chip Growth.

G. Moffett Cochran, Silvercrest Asset Management CEO, dies at 63

Bloomberg News

G. Moffett Cochran, co-founder and chief executive of Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc., a newly public New York-based firm catering to wealthy families, has died. He was 63.

He died Monday at Stamford Hospital in Connecticut, near his home in New Canaan, said his daughter, Lee Cochran. She said he survived 10 years with a neuroendocrine tumor on his pancreas, then his liver, because of experimental treatments with Robert L. Fine, a doctor at the Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center at New York Presbyterian Hospital-Columbia University Medical Center.

Mr. Cochran raised more than $1 million for the Robert L. Fine Cancer Research Laboratory Foundation Inc., his daughter said.

Silvercrest, of which Mr. Cochran was also chairman, advises families, endowments, foundations and other institutional investors and had $14.6 billion under management as of Sept. 30. The company was the 17th-largest manager of family wealth, according to a ranking in the September issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine.

Family offices, as such firms are known, offer financial counseling and basic investment management as well as advice on markets, investing and estate planning.

“The business of tax preparation and bill paying is a lousy business,” Mr. Cochran told Bloomberg Markets in 2012. “You can't lever it up. We do it, but we insist we get paid for it properly.”

JUDGE'S SON

Silvercrest canceled a p

How a shutdown could affect the economy

By passing a bill that funds the government except for Obamacare, House Republicans have launched a battle with Democrats that could result in a federal government shutdown.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) It would be inconvenient and frustrating. But how much would a federal government shutdown affect the economy?

It depends on how long it lasts.

"The effects build over time: Two weeks is worse than one week, and three works is still worse than two weeks, and four is still worse than that," Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf said earlier this week.

Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Analytics, got more specific.

Zandi estimates that a shutdown that lasts just a few days might cost the economy two-tenths of a percentage point of annualized growth during the fourth quarter. That's the economic equivalent of a smidge.

But if a shutdown runs for three or four weeks? "[That] would do significant economic damage" -- reducing GDP by 1.4 percentage points for the quarter, Zandi said in congressional testimony.

The last time there was a shutdown that long was at the end of 1995, when the government was shut down twice for nearly four weeks combined.

The CBO estimated those shutdowns shaved only about half a percentage point off growth in the fourth quarter of that year.

CNN: House GOP votes to defund Obamacare

Zandi said he is assuming a greater hit this time for two reasons. The first is timing: The 1995 shutdowns started in the second half of the quarter. This time, if Congress fails to pass a funding bill, the shutdown will begin on Oct. 1, the start of a new quarter.

In addition, Zandi noted, "the economy is much more fragile today than in 1995-96 when the economy was on the verge of the tech boom."

Mohamed El-E! rian, the CEO of bond fund firm PIMCO, thinks a shutdown could have several negative effects.

"First, it increases uncertainty which makes companies less willing to invest in new plants, equipment and hiring. Second, it forces the Fed to continue with experimental policies, the impact of which are uncertain," El-Erian told CNN.

Much might depend, too, on just how much of the federal government remains running during a shutdown. The White House will have some discretion in determining what's essential and what's not.

Typically any federal program or agency charged with protecting life and property -- such as air traffic control and food inspections -- is deemed critical, so operations there are likely to continue uninterrupted. Also likely to continue would be benefit payments such as Social Security checks.

But much of the federal government would be shuttered, and the money those agencies would normally spend would be delayed. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers would be furloughed without pay.

Another factor that could affect the economy in a prolonged shutdown is consumer, investor and business psychology, Zandi said.

And there's no telling what their psychology would be if a shutdown runs concurrent with a major standoff over the debt ceiling, raising the risk of a U.S. default.

We're Using Our Credit Cards Again, Because We're Feeling Better

NEW YORK (BankingMyWay) -- Consumers are digging out their credit cards.

Analysis from MasterCard (MA) says consumers face less financial anxiety today and feel more confidence in their ability to meet financial goals and manage their money, with 70% of U.S. adults saying they are "in control" of their finances -- up 6 percentage points from 2008. That could explain why consumer credit card usage is up $172 billion (or 8.4%) from 2011.

The real shift in financial habits, though, is away from debit cards. MasterCard reports that there has been an $7.7 billion drain away from debit cards and toward credit cards from 2011 to last year, a transition mostly triggered by improving consumer sentiment on the economy. [Read: Wall Streets' Great Recession Cost Us All $30 Trillion ]

"In the early years of the financial crisis, there was approximately $141 billion that shifted from credit to debit card spending," says Nitin Sumangali, a consumer spending analyst at MasterCard's Global Insights group. "Now that financial circumstances have improved, the tide has turned back to increased credit spending and borrowing." That doesn't mean debit cards are going away. "It's not that debit cards and credit cards are necessarily replacing one another," Sumangali says. "Rather our research indicates that as consumers become less fearful about their financial situation, they feel more confident about their ability to use credit and debit cards as complementary tools to manage their money. Regarding credit, debit and prepaid, it has never been a zero-sum game." One way Americans are better managing their credit cards is through price comparison. MasterCard says 77% of Americans are "comparing prices more than in the past" -- especially what the credit card giant calls the "credit worthy" segment in referring to consumers with good credit and low debt). Another driver is credit card rewards points, which MasterCard says is making a comeback. Last year, 54% of U.S. credit card users turned to plastic because of credit cards rewards, up 9% from 2008. Cash-back rewards are particularly popular with card users -- those programs are up 8 percentage points since 2008. [Read: Why There's Blame to Go Around on Consumers' Rising Bank Overdrafts ] "Consumers are discovering that one of the major benefits of electronic payments is the opportunity to receive offers and rewards," Sumangali says. "What's notable is that the average dollar amount of credit card transactions went down by more than $2, from $95 to $92.9, between 2008 and 2012. This suggests that in this new economy, consumers are using credit cards even for smaller purchases, and rewards are offering a key incentive for them to do so." It turns out that Americans didn't cut up their credit cards -- they just shelved them until the economy took a turn for the better.

Etihad Close To Taking Minority Stake In India's Jet Airways

For an airline, United Arab Emirates' Etihad Airways doesn't like to waste time.  They were the first to land in India when the government opened its market for foreigners this year.  And now they're approximately two weeks away from taking a 24% stake in regional Jet Airways, one of India's three domestic carriers, government regulators said Thursday.

The $379 million deal is being called more of a "strategic partnership" by Etihad.  The Australian managed airline from Abu Dhabi has decisively taken a different tack in the airline industry and has going on an acquiring binge, buying up stakes in airlines from air berlin to Virgin Australia.

Top 5 Cheap Stocks For 2014

Etihad's latest airline deal could get green lighted from the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs within the next two weeks, but the final outcome of the transaction will be decided by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

The Indian authorities have expressed some concerned that the original agreement, signed in April, will result in Etihad effectively controlling the management of Jet Airways.

The Indian airlines shares have been getting clobbered all year.  Jet's down over 36% since the Etihad deal was announced and down 36.7% year-to-date.  The stock has rebounded over the last month by 15%.

Etihad is privately held.

"India is one of the world's fastest-growing destinations, and a key market in the growth strategy of Etihad Airways," Chief Executive James Hogan said in a statement. "We now have the opportunity to add significant capacity between the two countries."

By the end of the year, Etihad will operate twice-daily flights leaving from its hub in Abu Dhabi-and heading to both Mumbai and New Delhi instead of just daily flights currently. It also plans to upgrade Abu Dhabi to Chennai flights.

Etihad was awarded the best airline in the Middle East by the World Travel Awards last month.

World's Leading Airline Business Class 2012

 

The 3 Worst Dow Stocks to Own Last Week

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

After five consecutive weeks in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) ended the week higher (the past three weeks) or lower (the first two) by more than 1%, this past week the blue-chip indexes closed higher by merely 0.29%, or 45 points. And the only reason it even closed in the black was that the index rallied late in the day on Friday and managed to finish with a 69-point gain. Similarly, the S&P 500 moved higher on Friday, which also helped the broader index close the week up 1.87 points, or 0.1%. But the Nasdaq wasn't as lucky, as it finished the past five trading sessions down 21 points, or 0.54%.

Despite the small moves the major indexes made this week, they weren't based on macro-events, but rather on earnings reports;always a good thing.

Before we jump into the Dow's big losers of the week, let's take a moment to examine the Dow's top stock. AT&T (NYSE: T  ) gained 2.98% this past week, prompted by a 2% move on Tuesday that came after the FCC approved the deal AT&T, DISH Network, and a number of other smaller wireless providers had agreed upon to help increase the spectrum band some of the carriers will now have access to. This FCC is looking out for consumers, who should be able to get better service. For AT&T, the world's largest mobile-telecom provider, it's a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," as the deal will increase the competition for its rivals.    

Last week's big losers
Oil giant Chevron (NYSE: CVX  ) lost 2.13% this past week, after the company reported its third-quarter earnings that had declined from the same quarter last year. The company did report slightly higher sales figures, but profit fell on weaker margins from the refining business. Still, management and some investors still believe the company has a bright future. Two projects that should boost revenue and profits are Gulf of Mexico deepwater wells and the plan to move natural gas from Australia to Asia, where demand continues to increase and push prices higher.  

Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) ended the week as the Dow's biggest loser, after falling 2.81% during. As with Chevron, Merck reported disappointing earnings, as revenue dropped 4% compared with the same quarter last year and missed Wall Street's expectations. Although earnings per share hit $0.92, which beat estimates, they also were down against last year -- to the tune of 35%. The company also gave lackluster guidance and reported that one of its best-selling drugs, Januvia, saw sales drop 5% during the quarter. That in itself certainly rattled a number of investors. Merck has already lost a number of patents in recent years, and to see a protected drug begin to stumble is not a good thing. Shareholders should certainly keep an eye on this development in the coming quarters.  

After losing 1.92%, Visa (NYSE: V  ) became the Dow's third worst stock to own last week. Once again, the move comes after the company reported earnings. While on the surface Visa's results were impressive -- revenue up 8%; earnings up 20%, increased dividend; announcement of a bigger share buyback -- the stock fell on Wednesday after the report came out. One likely cause is that investors were looking for slightly more from the company. For one thing, client incentives rose 20% during the quarter, which put a damper on revenue growth and made the earnings increase look less impressive. High expectations can mean price loses from time to time in the short run, but that shouldn't drive investors away from strong long-term companies, such as Visa.  

The other Dow losers this week:

Caterpillar, down 1.39% (click on the link for more) DuPont, down 1.3% Goldman Sachs, down 0.02% JPMorgan Chase, down 0.49% Microsoft, down 0.58% Travelers, down 0.26% United Technologies, down 0.01% Verizon, down 0.43% Walt Disney, down 0.36%

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Thanksgiving's the New Black Friday, But Will It Boost Sales?

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Alamy It's beginning to feel like the retail industry expects us to wrap up our Thanksgiving dinners and take them to go. Toys R Us, Best Buy (BBY), and Target (TGT) became the latest retailers to announce that they would be opening on Thursday -- or opening on Thursday -- this pivotal holiday shopping season. Toys "R" Us will open at 5 p.m. on Thanksgiving, three hours earlier than last year. Best Buy will greet turkey-fueled shoppers at 6 p.m. with its slate of deals on consumer electronics. Target -- after opening at 9 p.m. on Thanksgiving last year -- will kick open the doors to its cheap chic stores at 8 p.m. With so many retailers breaking into their holiday selling seasons on Thanksgiving, is it time to retire Black Friday? Creeping Earlier Last month it was Walmart (WMT) and Macy's (M) turning heads with their Thanksgiving night openings. Critics argued that it wasn't fair to make employees come in early on the holiday -- or to disrupt festive family fetes to woo shoppers -- but there's naturally another side to the story. Employees hungry for more hours welcome the additional time on the clock that's often paid at a higher rate than their hourly wages. They have holiday gifts to shop for too, after all. Nor are Shoppers universally panning the earlier "Black Thursday" sales. Many didn't consider it a treat to head out to stores at midnight or during the wee hours on Friday morning. Missing out on pumpkin pie, Uncle Nestor's story about how he was almost a member of The Beatles, or what should be meaningless game between the Ravens and Steelers may be easy sacrifices to make in exchange for the ability to sleep in Friday morning and still get the deals. Blame It On the Calendar Sears Holdings' (SHLD) Kmart has been opening on Thanksgiving for 22 years, and rivals didn't seem to care until the past few years. However, even Kmart came under attack earlier this year for its decision to open at 6 a.m. on Thanksgiving. Why is Kmart leading retailers to open earlier this holiday season? You may as well blame the calendar. Thanksgiving falls on the fourth Thursday of November, and this year, that just happens to be Nov. 28. That's the latest possible day for the holiday, making Nov. 29 the latest possible Black Friday. It goes without saying that retailers live for the holiday shopping season. An attempt to combat the late start this year by opening their doors a day -- or at the very least a few hours -- earlier than usual almost makes sense. Looking Out to Next Yeat Retailers won't divulge their plans for 2014 until at least next October. Thanksgiving 2014 will also happen relatively late -- Nov. 27 -- giving stores plenty of incentive to do anything possible to milk sales early in the season. If one retailer or another looks poised to lock up some holiday shopping lists with an earlier-than-ever sale, you can be sure that rivals will be quick to keep up. However, the biggest factor determining if retailers' operating hours continue to creep earlier into Thanksgiving Thursday will be if the move was successful this time. Chains that opened on Thanksgiving last year didn't necessarily see dramatic upticks in comparable-store sales. Walmart and Sears didn't even keep pace with inflation. However, with so many chains giving it a go this year, the retail market will have plenty of data to answer the question of whether or not opening on Thanksgiving was a win -- or a waste.

Top 10 Casino Companies To Invest In Right Now

Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) has gained 56% this year; Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has climbed 38%. And Deutsche Bank has nice things to say about both today.

Bloomberg

First Pinnacle. Deutsche Bank’s Carlo Santarelli ponders the stock’s big move and comes away still seeing value in its shares. He writes:

When we upgraded PNK in April, our thesis centered on the FCF strength of the combined entities [Pinnacle completed its acquisition of Ameristar Casinos on Aug. 14], a handful of favorable catalysts, easing regional gaming comps, & an inexpensive relative valuation. Given the shares’ sizeable move since then, we believe it is worth revisiting the investment case. Post the announcement of several asset sales and the closing of the transaction, we are adjusting our estimates, raising our PT to $30 from $24, and maintaining our bullish view at current levels given what we still believe to be an attractive free cash flow valuation, meaningful potential synergy realization beyond the $40 mm of announced benefits, and a free option on a lagging regional recovery.

Top 10 Casino Companies To Invest In Right Now: Wynn Resorts Limited(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of destination casino resorts. The company owns and operates Wynn Las Vegas casino resort in Las Vegas, which includes approximately 22 food and beverage outlets comprising 5 dining restaurants; 2 nightclubs; 1 spa and salon; 1 Ferrari and Maserati automobile dealership; wedding chapels; an 18-hole golf course; meeting space; and foot retail promenade featuring boutiques. Wynn Las Vegas casino resort also features approximately 147 table games, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, 1 poker room, 1,842 slot machines, and 1 race and sports book. It also owns and operates an Encore at Wynn Las Vegas resort, a destination casino resort located adjacent to Wynn Las Vegas that features a 2,034 all-suite hotel, as well as a casino with 95 table games, 1 sky casino, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, and 778 slot machines. In addition, the company operates Wyn n Macau casino resort located in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People?s Republic of China. Wynn Macau casino resort features approximately 595 hotel rooms and suites, 410 table games, 935 slot machines, 1 poker room, 1 sky casino, 6 restaurants, 1 spa and salon, lounges, meeting facilities, and retail space featuring boutiques. Further, it operates Encore at Wynn Macau resort located adjacent to Wynn Macau. Encore at Wynn Macau resort features approximately 410 luxury suites and 4 villas, as well as casino gaming space, including a sky casino consisting of 60 table games and 80 slot machines, 2 restaurants, 1 luxury spa, and retail space. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By John Udovich]

  Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (NASDAQ: MPEL) is a pure play Macau casino gaming stock that�� delivered an exceptional performance for investors verses the Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE: LVS), Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) and Market Vectors Gaming ETF (NYSEARCA: BJK), which also have exposure to the Macau casino gaming market, for a good reason. In 2006, Macau officially overtook the Las Vegas Strip as the largest casino gaming market in the world thanks in part to its location near Hong Kong�that�� also�within easy reach of the two billion people in China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. With that said, there could be some unfavorable trends or concerns that might make both Macau and Melco Crown Entertainment less of a sure bet.

• [By Jon C. Ogg]

  It looks like Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) is going to keep its high-end domestic growth ambitions localized to Las Vegas, Nevada. Even if it wants to expand domestically, it will be doing so elsewhere other than in Pennsylvania. The company issued a press release on Monday afternoon confirming the end of its local application in that state.

• [By M. Joy, Hayes]

  Industry trends
  Other businesses in the industry also have copious related-party transactions. In particular, founder-led businesses Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) �reported a large number of such transactions in their 2013 proxies, including employment of relatives, employee use of company services, and employee use of company-owned property. MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM  ) , on the other hand, didn't have to report any related-party transactions in its 2013 proxy.

Top 10 Casino Companies To Invest In Right Now: MGM Resorts International(MGM)

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, primarily owns and operates casino resorts in the United States. The company?s resorts offer gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31, 2010, the company owned and operated 15 properties located in Nevada, Mississippi, and Michigan; and has 50% investments in 4 other casino resorts in Nevada, Illinois, and Macau. In addition, MGM Resorts International has an agreement with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation, which owns and operates a casino resort in Connecticut, to carry the ?MGM Grand? brand name. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Matt Thalman]

  While Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) are both major players in Macau, MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) is making a big push to grow its base in the Chinese gambling mecca, while it also has a massive footprint in Las Vegas, and the other two have a much lower room count. MGM owns a good portion of the Las Vegas Strip, and as we continue to see average daily hotel room rates rise for the city and increased gaming revenue for the strip, we will see MGM greatly benefit from a recovering American tourist industry and a stronger Las Vegas.

• [By Travis Hoium]

  What we can take from this is that, most likely, Las Vegas Sands and Melco Crown (NASDAQ: MPEL  ) will see a large increase in revenue when they report earnings. We can also assume that MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) will show similar trends in Macau because its location is next to Wynn's. There's far more growth to be had than what Wynn is showing and Las Vegas Sands and Melco Crown likely took significant share during the first quarter.

Top 5 Financial Companies To Buy For 2014: (XTRN)

Las Vegas Railway Express Inc. focuses to re-establish a conventional passenger train service between the Las Vegas and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. It plans to establish a ?Vegas-style? passenger train service. The company is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Top 10 Casino Companies To Invest In Right Now: Penn National Gaming Inc.(PENN)

Penn National Gaming, Inc. and its subsidiaries own and manage gaming and pari-mutuel properties in the United States. It operates approximately 27,000 gaming machines; 500 table games; and 2,000 hotel rooms in 23 facilities in 16 jurisdictions, including Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ontario. The company was formerly known as PNRC Corp. and changed its name to Penn National Gaming, Inc. in 1994. Penn National Gaming, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Roberto Pedone]

   

  Penn National Gaming (PENN) is a diversified, multi-jurisdictional owner and manager of gaming and pari-mutuel properties. This stock closed up 1.4% at $56.13 in Monday's trading session.

   

  Monday's Volume: 1.11 million
  
  Three-Month Average Volume: 824,334
  
  Volume % Change: 73%

   

   

  From a technical perspective, PENN jumped modestly higher here right above some near-term support at $54.71 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of PENN within range of triggering a breakout trade. That trade will hit if PENN manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $57.44 to some past resistance at $58 with high volume.

   

  Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PENN as long as it's trending above Monday's low $55.65 or above more support at $54.71 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 824,334 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then PENN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $59.93. Any high-volume move above $59.93 will then give PENN a chance to hit $65.

   

• [By Paul Ausick]

  Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ: PENN) completed on Monday the spin-off of its real-estate holdings into a new REIT, Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. (G&LP) (NASDAQ: GLPI). The spin-off was first announced a year ago. Shares in GLPI are trading at around $46.51 after opening at $45.76 this morning.

• [By Paul Ausick]

  Stocks on the Move: BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ: BBRY) is down 16.4% at $6.50 after announcing that no buyout bid will be forthcoming. Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ: PENN) is down 76.7% at $13.75 after spinning-off its real-estate holdings into a REIT. Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is up 15.5% at $1.53 following the acquisition of its major operations in Wuxi.

Top 10 Casino Companies To Invest In Right Now: Boyd Gaming Corporation(BYD)

Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States. As of December 31, 2011, the company owned and operated 1,042,787 square feet of casino space, containing approximately 25,973 slot machines, 655 table games, and 11,418 hotel rooms. It also owned and operated 16 gaming entertainment properties located in Nevada, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Indiana, and New Jersey. In addition, the company owns and operates a pari-mutuel jai-alai facility located in Dania Beach, Florida, as well as a travel agency in Hawaii. Further, it holds a 50% controlling interest in the limited liability company that operates Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Boyd Gaming Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Dan Caplinger]

  MGM has built a history of being the odd player out in many of the most lucrative opportunities in the gaming industry. In Macau, the company is stuck in the slower-growth area of the Asian gaming destination. In Las Vegas, the new CityCenter area in the mid-Strip has watered down MGM's opportunities and has created another potential barrier for patrons coming from the northern end of the Strip to its namesake MGM Grand property. And in New Jersey, where online gaming has boosted prospects for Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR  ) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) , MGM has no exposure.

• [By Travis Hoium]

  What: Shares of Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) jumped 10% today after the company got an analyst upgrade.

  So what: Morgan Stanley upgraded shares to overweight today, and gave the stock a $12 price target. The analyst cited the potential for online gaming as the driver of the stock, potentially bringing as much revenue to the industry as Las Vegas and Atlantic City combined. �

• [By M. Joy, Hayes]

  Industry trends
  Other businesses in the industry also have copious related-party transactions. In particular, founder-led businesses Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) and Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD  ) �reported a large number of such transactions in their 2013 proxies, including employment of relatives, employee use of company services, and employee use of company-owned property. MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM  ) , on the other hand, didn't have to report any related-party transactions in its 2013 proxy.

Top 10 Casino Companies To Invest In Right Now: Pinnacle Entertainment Inc.(PNK)

Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. owns, develops, and operates casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. It operates casinos, such as L'Auberge du Lac in Lake Charles, Louisiana; River City Casino and Lumiere Place in St. Louis, Missouri; Boomtown New Orleans in New Orleans, Louisiana; Belterra Casino Resort in Vevay, Indiana; Boomtown Bossier City in Bossier City, Louisiana; and Boomtown Reno in Reno, Nevada. The company also operates River Downs racetrack in southeast Cincinnati, Ohio. As of May 26, 2011, it operated seven casinos and one racetrack. The company was formerly known as Hollywood Park, Inc. and changed its name to Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. in February 2000. Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Sean Williams]

  Time to make the switch
  If I could name a sector that I'd certainly tread lightly around considering that consumers are tightening their wallets, it would be the casino sector. Casino companies rely on loose wallets and vacations to drive profits. This is why I feel it could be the time to say goodbye to casino and race track operator Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK  ) near its 52-week high.

Top 10 Casino Companies To Invest In Right Now: Umax Group Corp (UMAX)

Umax Group Corp., incorporated on March 21, 2011, is a development-stage company. The Company focuses to develop and distribute its product to the arcade and entertainment industry. The Company�� products include Rocket Launch, is Strength testing game which allows players to test their pushing/ throwing strength; Space Hockey, is a two player hockey game - each player must score as many as possible goals and Boxer, is a Simple punch testing game: insert coin/token/bill, press start button, hit the punch bag, wait for result, and try to beat opponent�� score or high score.

As of April 30, 2013, the Company had no revenues. The Company has developed its business plan, and executed exclusive distribution contract GEO a private enterprise, where it engages GEO as an independent contractor for the specific purpose of developing, manufacturing and supplying games for the Company.

Nintendo Could Be Forced to Discontinue the Wii U Next Year

Discontinuing video-game consoles is far from unprecedented. Sega released, and then rapidly abandoned, four consoles between 1992 and 1999, before ultimately exiting the hardware business entirely. Nintendo (NASDAQOTH: NTDOY  ) has had its own failure -- it gave up on the Virtual Boy after just seven months.

Is the Wii U next? The console's first year on the market has been abysmal -- Nintendo has shipped just 4 million Wii U units, far short of its own expectations. After cutting the price, Nintendo is now selling the Wii U at a loss, and sales are unlikely to improve in the face of rising competition from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) and Sony (NYSE: SNE  ) .

The Wii U has been a total failure
The failure of the Wii U is no secret. Originally, Nintendo had expected to sell 5 million consoles by last March -- but by the end of September, Nintendo had shipped fewer than 4 million units. In an effort to juice sales, Nintendo cut the Wii U's price by $50 in late August, leading to a 200% sales jump in September. But when the base number is so low, large percentage increases look better than they really are. Even with the spike in sales, Nintendo sold just 300,000 consoles from July through September.

Nintendo's management still believes that it can sell 9 million Wii U consoles by the end of March. That seems utterly insane in light of the increased competition Nintendo's console will face in the next few weeks.

Microsoft will steal Nintendo's core market
In less than two weeks, Microsoft's Xbox One will go on sale. At $500, it's far more expensive than the Wii U's $300, but for the money, Microsoft's machine provides far more value. In addition to serving as a true next-generation video-game console, the Xbox One is packed with entertainment features that could appeal strongly to Nintendo's core market.

The original Wii was massively successful in large part because it appealed to casual gamers. Although the Wii had its fair share of core Nintendo franchises, its best-selling games were titles such as Wii Sports Resort, Wii Play, and Wii Fit. Rather than rely on buttons, these games used simple motion controls, making them accessible to non-gamers.

Microsoft's Xbox One should tap into this market. Unlike the first Kinect, an optional add-on for the Xbox 360, Microsoft's second-generation Kinect is included with all consoles, which should lead to more developer support. Similar to the Wii, Kinect-based games use body movement instead of button-mashing, making them far easier to play.

Certainly, for those who bought Wii Fit, the Xbox One should be enticing. Microsoft has partnered with a number of famous trainers for Xbox Fitness -- interactive workout videos that rely on the Kinect's technical capabilities.

Unlike Sony, Nintendo can't afford to support a failing console
Losing the casual gamer would hurt, but the bigger threat to the survival of the Wii U as a platform is Nintendo itself. Nintendo is unique in the sense that it's the only console maker that's strictly a video-game company -- it can not afford to subsidy losing hardware for very long.

In contrast, Sony, as an enormous conglomerate, can. The PlayStation 3 sold poorly at launch, and Sony lost money on the console, but it was able to stick by its machine for the long-haul. Indeed, by taking a loss on the PlayStation 3, Sony was able to support another part of its business -- its Blu-ray technology beat out the rival HD DVD, as early PlayStation 3s doubled as cheap Blu-ray players.

Sony will sell its PlayStation 4 at a loss as well, though the company expects to recoup the loss on games and PS+ subscriptions. At any rate, Sony's PlayStation 4 is even more competition for Nintendo's Wii U. Like the Xbox One, it will go on sale later this month, but unlike the Xbox One, it's only $100 more expensive than the Wii U.

This holiday season will be crucial for Nintendo
On Nintendo's last earnings call, the company's president, Satoru Iwata, characterized the upcoming holiday shopping season as crucial, remarking that Nintendo would evaluate what it needs to do, "over the long term, about its platform" once the holiday results were in.

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That could mean discontinuing the Wii U. Given that Nintendo's console will have to compete with two new machines from both Sony and Microsoft, the Wii U's holiday sales aren't likely to be good.

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Taking Social Security? Run the numbers first

As Baby Boomers search for that magic number — and that magic age — for retirement, they need to double-check a few numbers for calculating when to start taking Social Security benefits.

"Many times, people just claim Social Security as soon as they can," said Melissa Smith, vice president and retirement market manager at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, N.C.

But just grabbing Social Security at age 62 can cost thousands of dollars in retirement if someone lives well into their 80s or 90s. If a single person dies at 80, some research indicates that it wouldn't make a difference if the person took benefits at 62 or waited for a higher monthly payout until 70.

But running the numbers can be more complex for married couples or those who live longer.

RETIREMENT LIVING: At what age should you start claiming Social Security?

So come Veterans Day there's a Social Security-related freebie that one can use before or after one of those free meals for vets at some restaurants on Monday.

The youngest Vietnam-era vets are approaching retirement years and can crunch numbers Monday at www.SocialSecurityforVeterans.com. You're not going to be asked your Social Security number here. But you'd first need to go to www.ssa.gov/mystatement, create a "My Social Security" account and find your primary insurance amount or PIA, the estimated monthly Social Security benefit due at your full retirement age.

The one-day-only freebie is sponsored by Wells Fargo. Partners include Kiplinger's and Social Security Solutions, which offers advice on Social Security retirement benefit claiming strategies.

The Social Security website at www.ssa.gov can be helpful in working through strategies, too.

Age 62 is the earliest one can claim retirement Social Security benefits but people can wait as long as age 70 to claim the maximum monthly benefit.

The full retirement age — which offers better monthly benefits than at 62 — would be 66 for those born between 1943 and 1954. Someone born! in 1960 or after must wait until age 67 for the full retirement age.

Folks born from 1955 through 1959 face a crazy quilt of full retirement ages. Someone born in 1955 must wait until age 66 and 2 months for a full retirement age.

"Social Security is filled with rules. It's complicated. It's overwhelming to people," said Robin Brewton, vice president of client services for Social Security Solutions in Overland Park, Kan.

NEW: USA TODAY's Retirement Section

If your full retirement age is 66, for example, there's a 25% reduction of your monthly payment if you claim benefits at age 62 instead of 66. The reduction is about 20% if claiming at age 63.

Wait until 70 and the monthly payout between 66 and 70 goes up 8% each year you wait to take benefits or 32% for waiting the full four years, Brewton said.

Monthly Social Security benefits are based on the highest 35 years of earnings. (To be eligible for Social Security, you'd have to have registered 40 quarters of earnings or 10 years.) If you only worked 30 years, you'd have five years of zeros that would lower your overall monthly benefit.

Tim Steffen, director of financial planning for Baird's private wealth management group in Milwaukee, said some people in their late 50s or early 60s ended up out of work during the recession and may have retired early.

"If (Social Security) is your only source of retirement income, taking it early is your only choice," Steffen said.

But some should reconsider if they can afford to stop working and retire.

One significant mistake some people make now, Steffen said, is signing up to receive Social Security benefits at 65, the age to sign up for Medicare.

"A generation ago, that might have been fine," Steffen said.

If you claim at 65 instead of 66, the monthly benefit is reduced by 6.67%.

But things get more complicated for married couples who can claim spousal benefits or those who are divorced who also might claim spousal benefits.

Waitin! g until a! ge of 66 allows some unique strategies for some couples, too.

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For a couple who are about the same age, it may make sense to investigate a strategy called "file and suspend" at age 66.

Brewton's example: Take a fictional Roy and Mary. His full retirement benefit at 62 years old is $2,210 a month; Mary's is $891 at age 62.

But say Roy does not collect at 62 and files for benefits at full retirement age of 66 and quickly suspends his benefit payments. That would enable Mary to file for spousal-only benefits at 66 and collect half of Roy's full benefit or $1,105.

At age 70, Roy starts collecting benefits at the full $2,914 a month. Mary then will collect her own benefits at age 70 at $1,184 a month.

Brewton's numbers show an overall gain of more than $185,000 if Roy lives to 83 and Mary lives until age 92 in this example. The survivor benefit for Mary also goes up to $2,914 a month after Roy dies in this case.

Sure, who knows exactly how long anyone will live? But experts say it can pay to play around with some numbers. So Veterans Day could be as good a day as any to run those numbers.

Contact Susan Tompor: 313-222-8876 or stompor@freepress.com

For investors, jobs report is good and bad news

If you were hoping for higher interest rates on your CD, you're going to be sorely disappointed by today's jobs report, even though it's surprisingly good. And if you're bullish on stocks, you've got both good news and bad news.

The nation's economy added 204,000 non-farm jobs in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, vs. the Wall Street consensus estimate of 122,000 . The unemployment rate rose to 7.3%, vs. 7.2% in September. "This is a mind-blower," says Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief for bankrate.com.

October surprise: Economy adds 204,000 jobs

For savers, though, the news isn't quite good enough. October's reading still means that the unemployment rate is well above 6.5%, the level at which the Fed has indicated it would start increasing interest rates. The number of full-time workers as a percentage of the workforce is still low. Until more people are employed — and spending money — the Fed will keep rates low.

And, says Hamrick, the industries that added the most jobs — leisure, hospitality, restaurants — are not typically the kinds of jobs that people go into for a full-time career. "If you have a son or daughter graduating from college, those aren't the sectors you're praying they go into," Hamrick says.

From the Federal Reserve's point of view, there's also no reason to back off its policy of buying $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities every month. That policy, known as quantitative easing, keeps longer-term rates — such as mortgages — lower than they would be otherwise. Those low rates allow businesses and homeowners to refinance their debt at lower rates, and pocket the change.

But today's report does mean that the time for tapering off the Fed's bond-buying program — now $85 billion a month — could be sooner than Wall Street expects. And that's mixed news for stocks. If you're bullish, you can take comfort in the fact that the economy is growing a bit faster than expected, which should eventually tran! slate into higher earnings and higher stock prices.

If you're bearish, it means that interest rates will rise as the demand for money and loans rises — the natural side effect of a growing economy. Rising rates tend to be hardest on stocks that people buy for income, such as utilities, real estate investment trusts, and other reliable dividend-paying stocks.

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For bond investors, Friday's cheerful news is a bitter disappointment. Bond traders are only happy when it rains. A growing economy means higher interest rates, and higher interest rates mean lower bond prices. The yield on the bellwether 10-year Treasury note jumped to 2.71% on the news of better-than-expected employment. If the economy continues to improve, interest rates will rise, and returns from bond funds will suffer.

Stock Price Targets: What Analysts Won't Tell You

Analysts use a series of calculations to determine the price target of a stock over a certain period of time, however, says John Heinzl, of the Globe and Mail, sometimes these price determinations are met with skepticism.

How much attention do you pay to analysts' stock price targets?

As a financial journalist, I'm exposed to analyst price targets on a daily basis. I've seen enough targets that were wildly off the mark (RIM (RIM), anyone?) that I don't make investing decisions based on them, but I don't entirely ignore them, either.

When an analyst issues a price target, it indicates that the brokerage expects (at least ostensibly) that the stock will reach the target within a certain time period, usually a year or 18 months. Targets aren't arbitrary; they're usually calculated by estimating a company's future per-share earnings, and then applying a price-to-earnings multiple to that number.

For example, BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Bert Powell recently raised his price target on Wajax (WJX) to $41.50 from $35.50 because, as he explained in a note, he believes the company is poised for a recovery. The new target reflects his expectation that the stock will trade at 11 times his 2015 earnings per share estimate of $3.77—its average P/E multiple historically.

Another measure sometimes used to calculate price targets is the EV/EBITDA ratio—the company's enterprise value (market value of debt plus equity, minus cash) divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. A third method involves discounted cash flow analysis, in which the sum of a company's estimated future cash flows are discounted back to a present value.

Whatever method is used, price targets are often met with skepticism. Some investors see them mainly as marketing tools for brokerages that want to drum up interest in a stock. Indeed, research has shown that price targets tell you little about where a company's share price is actually heading.

In a 2006 paper, Mark Bradshaw of Harvard Business School and Lawrence Brown of Georgia State University examined nearly 100,000 12-month price targets issued by analysts from 1997 to 2002.

The study found that the stock was at or above the target at the end of 12 months just one-quarter of the time, and had exceeded the target at some point during those 12 months less than half of the time.

"Target price forecasts are overly optimistic on average, and...analysts demonstrate no abilities to persistently forecast target prices," the authors concluded. "This evidence is consistent with prior findings of low abilities of various experts to forecast interest rates, GDP, recessions, and business cycles, and the infrequency with which actively managed funds beat the market index."

Sometimes, target prices vary so widely that it borders on comical.

Consider Netflix (NFLX), the video-streaming company whose stock has risen more than five-fold in the past year, and which closed Friday at $328.03 (US). The most pessimistic analyst on Wall Street has a 12-month target of $72; the most optimistic has a target of $460. Such wide dispersion indicates that analysts don't really know how to value the company; there are too many variables at play.

Contrast that with a company such as Canadian Utilities (CDUAF), whose eight price targets range from $40 to $42. (The stock closed Friday at $38.08 [Canadian]). Such tight clustering of targets indicates that analysts have a high degree of conviction about the company's future earnings, which isn't surprising for a utility that throws off predictable cash flows.

That doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the targets, of course. Factors such as interest rates, the economy, and market sentiment can all come into play, which is why you need to treat price targets—with their penchant for overestimating a stock's performance—with a healthy degree of skepticism.

Read more from the Globe and Mail here…

Does Hertz Have a Bright Future?

With shares of Hertz (NYSE:HTZ) trading around $20, is HTZ an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Hertz engages in the car and equipment rental businesses around the world. The company operates in two segments: Car Rental and Equipment Rental. The Car Rental segment rents and leases various car models on an hourly, daily, weekend, weekly, monthly, or multi-month basis. This company operates car rental locations at or near airports, in central business districts, and suburban areas of cities, as well as retail used car sales locations, provides car-sharing services, and fleet leasing and management services worldwide. Hertz also sells and rents earthmoving equipment, material handling equipment, aerial and electrical equipment, air compressors, generators, pumps, small tools, compaction equipment, and construction-related trucks.

Hertz reported quarterly earnings that beat expectations, partially due to the success of its purchase of the discount car rental chain Dollar Thrifty. Hertz's earnings of 73 cents a share beat analyst expectations of 71 cents and revenue rose 22 percent to $3.1 billion, topping expectations of $3.06 billion according to analysts from Thomson Reuters. Still, Hertz reaffirmed its lower full-year guidance, but said it has been seeing improvement in sales at its Hertz locations post-government shutdown.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Mixed

Hertz stock has been steadily rising over the last several years. The stock is currently trading slightly below highs for the year and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Hertz is trading below its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Hertz options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Hertz Options	37.58%	16%	14%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
December Options	Steep	Average
January Options	Steep	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Hertz’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Hertz look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	4.38%	28.57%	130.77%	-180.30%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	21.99%	22.00%	24.25%	15.13%
Earnings Reaction	N/A	-2.45%	0.45%	1.65%

Hertz has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Hertz’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Hertz stock done relative to its peers, Avis Budget Group (NASDAQ:CAR), United Rentals (NYSE:URI), Amerco (NASDAQ:UHAL), and sector?

	Hertz	Avis Budget Group	United Rentals	Amerco	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	34.66%	58.27%	45.69%	63.45%	51.51%

Hertz has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Hertz is involved in the vehicle and equipment sale and rental business all around the world. The company recently reported earnings that impressed the markets. The stock has been steadily rising over the last several years and is now trading slightly below highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been rising, which has generally pleased investors. Relative to its peers and sector, Hertz has been a poor year-to-date performer. Look for Hertz to OUTPERFORM.