Monday, September 30, 2013

Beware of Waving Red Flags

Small-cap expert Jim Oberweis details the red flags that investors should watch out for in companies' financial reports without having to read the whole thing.

SPEAKER 1:  Hi.  My guest today is Jim Oberweis.  Thanks Jim for coming by.  We appreciate it.  Always good to see you.

JIM:  Pleasure, you likewise.

SPEAKER 1:  I love your newsletter and recently you wrote something about red flags that investors should be looking for in financial reporting and that’s kind of funny because how many investors really read the financial reports.  You know they listen to the headlines and it’s like oh that sounds good, I think I’ll buy it.  I’ll put all of that in my portfolio.

JIM:  And it’s really interesting because we’re kind of overwhelmed with information these days.  All the information is there, it just sometimes takes some time to kind of dig through.  I’ve been doing this now 19 years and I’ve seen lots of CEOs and I’ve never seen anyone who doesn’t love their company, so I think you have to be really careful in sorting through kind of the good from the bad.

SPEAKER 1:  That’s why I love Warren Buffet’s reports.  It’s like well you know we did okay here but kind of screwed up here and you don’t see too much of that.

JIM:  No, that is definitely the exception.

SPEAKER 1:  So what are some of the red flags that investors should actually look for that don’t make them read the entire 10K because we know they’re not going to do that.

JIM:  Absolutely.  Honestly we just spend a lot of time looking at the numbers more than what management says.  I’d be highly skeptical.  If you come in with a highly skeptical attitude, look for things like increases in inventories that are difficult to explain or companies blaming the weather for (INAUDIBLE), like Coca Cola blaming Indian monsoon season this year on missing their quarterly numbers.  That stuff just doesn’t fly.  What we find many times is when growth rates start to slow a little bit, a lot of times there are more bad quarters to come, so be fairly quick to the trigger to exit stock when the first signs of trouble are brewing.  We also look for accounting that perhaps is a little bit more aggressive than one might expect.  We prefer to see conservative accounting quality.

SPEAKER 1:  Most of the companies that you’re looking at are small-cap companies so that their financial statements tend to be more visible than what you would if you we’re buying Exxon or something like that. 

Hot Small Cap Companies To Buy For 2014

JIM:  That’s right.  It’s much easier to analyze a company when there’s one or two products or a product line versus a _____ like Exxon.

SPEAKER 1:  Is that why you chose that sector?  Is that one of the reasons?

JIM:  You know we try to find areas where there is inefficient pricing with others where there are segments of the market where there are just not a lot of people looking at them where we think we can add value.  The problem with a company like General Electric or Microsoft is there are so many analysts tracking…

SPEAKER 1:  Yeah, 37, 42, yes.

JIM:  Exactly.  It’s really hard to be smarter than that collective group, but sometimes in small-cap stocks if you’re quick to recognize change and you are watching and doing your homework and looking through why companies are growing, sometimes you can be a little bit quicker than others and add excess return.

SPEAKER 1:  Absolutely.  Thanks for joining me Jim.

JIM:  Pleasure, thanks.

SPEAKER 1:  Thanks for being with us on the Moneyshow.com Video Network.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Two Buys with Very Low Risk

Two of our current recommended positions, both exchange-traded funds, qualify as very low risk investments, notes J. Royden Ward, editor of Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor.

iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index ETF (USMV) seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index.

The ETF invests at least 90% of its assets in securities of the Index or in depositary receipts representing securities in the Index.

USMV is currently selling at a very small 0.14% discount to its net asset value. The price to earnings ratio (P/E) of the stocks contained in the ETF is 25.0, and the price to book value ratio (P/BV) is 5.41.

Both ratios are a little high, but beta, which is a measure of volatility, is a low 0.78. Management fees total 0.15%.

USMV is very well-diversified, with risk spread out over 134 holdings. The largest position consumes only 1.65% of the total portfolio.

The ten largest holdings in order of size are: TJX, Paychex, ADP, General Mills, Johnson & Johnson, PepsiCo, Bristol-Myers, Lockheed Martin, Chubb, and Eli Lilly.

The five largest sectors are: HealthCare, Financials, Consumer Staples, Information Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.

A recent report by Morningstar concluded: "in nearly every market studied, low-volatility stocks have outperformed high-volatility stocks." USMV is a great addition to everyone's portfolio. I expect USMV shares to reach my Min Sell Price of 47.00 within two years.

Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) holds all the companies in the S&P 1500 Index that have raised their dividends every year for the past 20 years.

The objective of SDY is to include companies that have increased their dividends consistently. Only 85 qualify out of 1,500 companies!

Companies with pristine dividend records tend to produce solid earnings and sustainable business models. Also, management is less likely to engage in reckless capital spending if one of the goals of management is to protect and grow the company's dividend.

SDY is currently selling at a very small 0.02% discount to its net asset value. The P/E ratio of the stocks contained in the ETF, based on current EPS, is 19.1, and the P/BV ratio is 2.74. Both ratios are reasonable, and the beta is below average at 0.77. Management fees total 0.35%.

SDY is quite well diversified with risk spread out over 85 holdings. The largest position is only 2.70% of the total portfolio.

The ten largest holdings in order of size are AT&T, HCP, Consolidated Edison, Abbvie, National Retail Properties, Nucor, Clorox, Chevron, Air Products, and Emerson Electric.

The five largest sectors are: Consumer Staples, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Utilities.

SDY is a great substitution for bonds because of its 2.8% yield and steady performance. I expect SDY to reach my Min Sell Price of 103.00 within two years.

Subscribe to Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor here…

More from MoneyShow.com:

Growth and Income ETFs

Dreman: The Contrarian's Contrarian

Worried About a Pullback? Think Dividends

Saturday, September 28, 2013

An Unconventional Approach to Valuing Tesla

Source: Tesla Motors.

Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) at $190? One year ago no one would have believed it. The stock is up about 500% over the past 12 months. With the stock hitting all-time highs again, it's time to look at the electric car-marker's valuation. While a number of articles have made a great case for the stock's overvaluation, very few have attempted to understand why the stock could actually deserve a valuation that defies gravity.

At Tesla's price today, the devil's advocate has received enough attention. On that note, it's time to call in the ... angel's advocate.

The bear case for Tesla's stock is easy. It's rational. It usually goes like this.

Whip up some standard valuation metrics -- price-to-earnings, sales per car, price-to-sales, whatever. Consider growth opportunities. Acknowledge monstrous growth as a gamble. Compare to auto peers. Shake head in disbelief, concluding the stock is wildly overvalued.

What's wrong with the typical bear case?
Despite rational cases for Tesla's overvaluation, investors shorting the stock continue to get burned. Instead of quickly concluding that Tesla is simply defying gravity because it's an irrational bubble, let's dig a bit deeper.

Here's the important facet of Tesla's valuation that the bear case often overlooks. Tesla doesn't need to report lucrative earnings to please the Street. In fact, it could be more than a decade before Tesla reports a net profit margin (earnings divided by sales) that is comparable to its peers.

No meaningful earnings, and the Street seems perfectly content; has the market lost its mind? Not at all. Actually, it makes a lot of sense.

If Tesla was reporting a lucrative net profit margin, I would be worried about the company's future competitive position. To gain a foothold among the big dogs, Tesla should be spending every dollar of gross profit possible. R&D, capex spending, SG&A -- bring it. Spend as much as possible.

Tesla is a small player. To compete with players such as Ford, GM, and Toyota, Tesla is going to need to achieve greater manufacturing scale than its current levels. Even more, with guidance for production and sales to double from 21,000 Model S in 2013 to more than 40,000 Model S in 2014, there's no reason for Tesla to aim for a meaningful net margin today.

Sure, earnings do matter. But as a small player, Tesla should focus on growing its scale and let earnings surface later on. Of course Tesla doesn't want to overspend -- but with sales growing as fast as they are today, investors shouldn't hope for a handsome net profit margin.

Hedging temporary competitive advantages
If there were competitors on Tesla's heels today, it would make sense for the company to be more conservative with spending, but there's not.

In fact, the company has two key short-term competitive advantages going for it that hedge the company's short-term success. For this reason, Tesla basically has soaring demand locked in for the next several years. This makes heavy spending a wise decision, not a risky bet.

Model S charging. Source: Tesla Motors.

The first competitive advantage Tesla sports is its dramatic lead on charging infrastructure. The Tesla-owned Superchargers are, on average, 16 times faster than most public charging stations. After an announcement earlier this year to boost construction, Tesla plans to have Superchargers within distance of 98% of the U.S. population by 2015.

But it doesn't stop in the United States. The expansion is just as aggressive internationally. A few weeks ago, Tesla launched onto the scene in Europe, when 90% of Norwegians gained access to a Supercharging station. Then, in a press release, Tesla laid out the details of its plans for its Europe expansion:

By the end of 2014, 100 percent of the population of Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark and Luxembourg will live within 320 km of a Supercharger station, with about 90 percent of the population in England, Wales and Sweden living within the same distance of a charging station.

That 320 km, of course, is well within the range of the 480 km-rated range of a Model S.

Model S. Source: Tesla Motors.

Tesla's second competitive advantage lies in the car's award-winning performance. Tesla's 265-mile battery range is far ahead of its electric counterparts from various other brands. Even more, Tesla was able to achieve this while racking up a number of other accolades, including Motor Trend Car of the Year, Consumer Reports' highest rated car ever, and the highest safety rating from the NHTSA.

Groundbreaking range and impressive performance together give the Model S an undeniable value proposition. And it shows in the marketplace. For the first half of 2013, the Model S captured 10% of the large luxury-car market in the United States. The share would have probably been higher if it wasn't for supply-chain bottlenecks. Even today, Tesla remains supply-limited, selling every car it makes.

With short-term demand pretty much in the bag thanks to an aggressive Supercharger expansion and award-winning car, Tesla should be spending aggressively to ramp up infrastructure, manufacturing, and demand.

How to value Tesla
So with earnings out of the picture, how can we value Tesla? One way is to look at the company's gross profit.

By the fourth quarter of 2013, Tesla believes it can achieve a gross profit margin of 25% on sales of 21,000 vehicles, annually. With a 25% gross profit margin basically already in the bag, and an aspiration to achieve margins that rival Porsche, it's reasonable to assume Tesla can achieve a 30% gross profit margin in 2014 on its projected sales that "could exceed 40,000 units per year" (we'll estimate 42,000).

These assumptions give us a 2014 gross profit of $275 million. At today's price, therefore, Tesla is trading at 79 times this 2014 estimate for gross profit.

Seventy-nine times next years gross profit is a bit ludicrous, but Tesla's not valued based on the Model S -- investors are counting on the company's "affordable car," which CEO Elon Musk believes Tesla can bring to market in as little as three to four years.

If the company brings the car to market in three years and maxes out its Fremont, Calif., factory's production capacity of 500,000 cars per year five years from now, Tesla's gross profit would be considerably higher by then.

Assuming the company's average selling price for its cars declines to $50,000 and Tesla reached 500,000 cars annually and maintained a 30% gross profit margin, Tesla could report a gross profit of $7.5 billion in five years.

That would put Tesla at about 2.9 times an estimate for the company's gross profit five years from now. Today, Ford trades at about 3.1 times its current gross profit levels.

If Tesla is able to accomplish this in five years, however, the business' incredible performance up to that point would probably merit a premium greater than the conservative valuation automakers have today. So let's assume, five years from now, Tesla's disruptive business model earns a premium to gross profit that is one and a half times that of Ford today.

Under these assumptions, Tesla would trade at $288, giving investors an annualized return of about 10% over the next five years.

The x-factor
This scenario leads to several conclusions.

First, there is a potential bullish scenario that could yield investors a meaningful return -- even with shares trading at $190. Even more, Tesla has done nothing to disprove this wildly positive scenario. And even though I tried to paint an extremely bullish scenario as the angel's advocate, there's always a possibility that Tesla could even outperform these expectations. For instance, Musk has mentioned that Tesla may open new manufacturing factories in Asia and Eruope, too -- a fact I didn't even take into consideration.

Second, as just a possible outcome at the higher end of the spectrum of possibilities, a bet on the stock today is speculative -- so I would avoid buying shares.

Last, shorting Tesla stock could be even more dangerous than buying shares. As long as this possible scenario is looming, the stock will likely continue to trade at valuations that make very little sense -- let's call it Tesla's X-factor. It's an American Cinderella story; the company is defying all odds. The X-factor, therefore, could lead to wildly bullish valuation metrics for decades, leaving investors shorting the stock wanting.

At $190, buying Tesla would be a gamble, selling Tesla would be rational, holding Tesla would be speculative, and shorting Tesla would be downright dangerous.

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Thursday, September 26, 2013

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014

Every quarter, many money managers have to disclose what they've bought and sold, via "13F" filings. Their latest moves can shine a bright light on smart stock picks.

Today, let's look at investing giant Carl Icahn, who has made billions, partly by taking large positions in companies and pushing for change in them. These companies have included Texaco, RJR Nabisco, and Imclone. He's also drawn to companies in or near bankruptcy, wanting to make them more valuable in order to sell them at a higher price.

Icahn Associates' reportable stock portfolio totaled $17.0 billion in value as of March 31, 2013. Its top three�holdings, Icahn Enterprises L.P., CVR Energy, and Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) , make up 60% of the overall portfolio's value. Chesapeake is finally under new management, and has been shedding assets to help it pay down debt, while also aiming to boost production. It's poised to profit from rising natural gas prices.

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: BP p.l.c.(BP)

BP p.l.c. provides fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, retail services, and petrochemicals products. Its Exploration and Production segment engages in the oil and natural gas exploration, field development, and production; midstream transportation, and storage and processing; and marketing and trading of natural gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), and power and natural gas liquids (NGL). This segment has exploration and production activities in Angola, Azerbaijan, Canada, Egypt, Norway, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as in Asia, Australasia, South America, North Africa, and the Middle East. This segment also owns and manages crude oil and natural gas pipelines; processing facilities and export terminals; and LNG processing and transportation, as well as NGL extraction facilities. BP p.l.c. has interests in the Trans-Alaska pipeline system, the Forties pipeline system, the Central Area transmission sys tem pipeline, the South Caucasus Pipeline, and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, as well as in LNG plants located in Trinidad, Indonesia, and Australia. The company?s Refining and Marketing segment involves in the supply and trading, refining, manufacturing, marketing, and transportation of crude oil, petroleum, and petrochemicals products and related services to wholesale and retail customers primarily under the BP, Castrol, ARCO, and Aral brands. Its Other Businesses and Corporate segment produces and markets rolled aluminum products, as well as generates energy through wind, solar, biofuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage sources; and engages in shipping activities. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Reese, Founder and CEO, Validea.com And Validea Capital Management]

    As you might imagine, the portfolio will tread into areas of the market others ignore, because of its contrarian bent. Right now, its holdings include some very unloved firms, including several financials, emerging market stocks, and much-maligned BP. Here's a look at five of the stock in our Dreman portfolio:

    Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)

    BP Plc (BP)

    Telecom Argentina SA (TEO)

    China Mobile Limited (CHL)

    Vale SA (VALE)

    Subscribe to Validea here��/P>

  • [By Dividend Growth Investor]

    The company�� last dividend increase was in April 2013 when the Board of Directors approved a 10.50% increase to 63 cents/share. The company�� largest competitors include Chevron (CVX), British Petroleum (BP) and Royal Dutch (RDS.B). In late 2012, I replaced Exxon Mobil with a position in ConocoPhillips.

  • [By Helix Investment Research]

    We note that Keating Capital's co-investors in many of its portfolio companies are not simply other venture capital or existing investors, but strategic investors as well. Examples include Agilyx, where Waste Management (WM) is a co-investor, BrightSource, where Chevron (CVX) and BP (BP) are co-investors, Kabam, where Google (GOOG) and Intel (INTC) are co-investors, or Tremor Video (TRMR), where Time Warner (TWX) is a co-investor. As of the end of Q2 2013, 9 (excluding Jumptap) of Keating Capital's portfolio companies had unrealized gains, with an average gain of 25.6% (again excluding Jumptap, which had unrealized gains of 8% as of the end of Q2 2013). The remaining 6 companies had an average loss of 44.46%. However, on an overall basis, Keating Capital's portfolio currently has an average unrealized gain of 2.15%. While this is not a large gain, we note that the bulk of Keating Capital's profits are realized upon exiting an investment in conjunction with the portfolio company's IPO or sale. Furthermore, portions of Keating Capital's portfolio are defended by structurally protected appreciation clauses that the company has struck with its portfolio companies, clauses that are not reflected on its balance sheet. These clauses, which are negotiated between Keating Capital and its portfolio companies, allow the company to receive shares in the portfolio company's IPO at a discount, or grant it warrants to purchase additional shares in an IPO for a nominal price. Since inception, Keating Capital has negotiated structurally protected appreciation clauses in 11 of the 20 companies it has invested in. As of the end of Q2 2013, 6 of Keating Capital's 15 portfolio companies were protected by structurally protected appreciation clauses, representing $22 million in total capital (almost 43% of the company's invested capital), thereby entitling Keating Capital to a weighted-average aggregate value of 1.9x its investment at the time of an IPO.

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: Solazyme Inc (SZYM)

Solazyme, Inc. (Solazyme), incorporated on March 31, 2003, makes oil. The Company�� technology transforms a range of plant-based sugars into oils. Its renewable products can replace or enhance oils derived from the world�� three existing sources-petroleum, plants and animal fats. The Company is focused on commercializing its products into three target markets: fuels and chemicals, nutrition, and skin and personal care. In 2010, the Company launched its products, the Golden Chlorella line of dietary supplements. In March 2011, the Company launched its Algenist brand for the luxury skin care market through marketing and distribution arrangements with Sephora S.A. (Sephora International), Sephora USA, Inc. (Sephora USA), and QVC, Inc. (QVC).

The Company is engaged in development activities with multiple partners, including Chevron U.S.A. Inc., through its division Chevron Technology Ventures (Chevron), The Dow Chemical Company (Dow), Ecopetrol S.A. (Ecopetrol), Qantas Airways Limited (Qantas) and Conopoco, Inc., doing business as Unilever (Unilever).

In 2010, the Company entered into a 50/50 joint venture with Roquette Freres, S.A. (Roquette). In November 2010, the Company entered into a joint venture and operating agreement for Solazyme Roquette Nutritionals with Roquette. In December 2010, the Company entered into an exclusive distribution relationship with Sephora International, and in January 2011, the Company entered into a distribution relationship with Sephora USA. Under the arrangements, each of Sephora International and Sephora USA will distribute the Algenist product line in their respective territories.

In Fuels and Chemicals market its renewable oils can be refined and sold as drop-in replacements for marine, motor vehicle and jet fuels, as well as replacements for chemicals that are traditionally derived from petroleum or other conventional oils. The Company work with its refining partner Honeywell UOP to produce Soladiesel (renewable diesel), So! ladiesel renewable diesel for United States Naval vessels, and Solajet renewable jet fuel for both military and commercial application testing. In nutrition market the Company has developed microalgae-based food ingredients, including oils and powders that enhance the nutritional profile and functionality of food products while reducing costs for consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies. In Skin and Personal Care market the Company hs developed a portfolio of branded microalgae-based products. Its ingredient is Alguronic Acid, which the Company has formulated into a range of skin care products with anti-aging benefits. The Company is also developing algal oils as replacements for the oils used in skin and personal care products.

The Company competes with BP p.l.c., Royal Dutch Shell plc, and Exxon Mobil Corporation, jatropha, camelina, SALOV North America Corporation, Archer Daniels Midland Company, Cargill, Incorporated, DSM Food Specialties and Danisco A/S

Best Heal Care Stocks To Watch For 2014: LDK Solar Co. Ltd.(LDK)

LDK Solar Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of photovoltaic (PV) products; and development of power plant projects. It offers solar-grade and semiconductor-grade polysilicon; and multicrystalline and monocrystalline solar wafers to the manufacturers of solar cells and solar modules. The company also provides wafer processing services to monocrystalline and multicrystalline solar cell and module manufacturers; and sells silicon materials, such as ingots and polysilicon scraps. In addition, it engages in the production and sale of solar cells and modules to developers, distributors, and system integrators; and design and development of solar power projects in Europe, the United States, and China, as well as provides engineering, procurement, and construction services. LDK Solar Co., Ltd. operates in Europe, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Xinyu City, t he People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Big earnings movers: Chinese internet firm Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU) is up 8% at $78.99 on strong earnings and a buoyant outlook. A small biotech firm, Spherix Inc. (NASDAQ: SPEX) jumped 26.7% to more than $14 on earnings. On Tuesday we are scheduled to get earnings from LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) before markets open. After Tuesday�� close we��l hear from Workday Inc. (NYSE: WDAY) and TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO), among others.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Notable earnings reports currently on tap for next week: Qihu 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: QIHU), Avago Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: AVGO), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Joy Global Inc. (NYSE: JOY), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (NYSE: KKD), and ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL).

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One under-$10 name that's starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is LDK Solar (LDK), a vertically integrated manufacturer of PV products for polysilicon, wafers, cells, modules, systems, power projects and solutions. This stock is off to a decent start in 2013, with shares up 13.1%.

    If you take a look at the chart for LDK Solar, you'll notice that this stock has been trending range bound and consolidating for the last month and change, with shares moving between $1.42 on the downside and $2 a share on the upside. Shares of LDK have just started to trend back above its 50-day moving average at $1.55 a share with decent upside volume flows. That move is quickly pushing shares of LDK within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade above a key downtrend line that has acted as resistance for a few months.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in LDK if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.78 to $1.83 a share and then once it clears more resistance at $2 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.97 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then LDK will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.17 to its 52-week high at $2.32 a share. Any high-volume move above $2.32 to $2.36 will then give LDK a chance to tag $3 to $3.50 a share.

    Traders can look to buy LDK off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support levels at its 200-day moving average of $1.46 or at $1.42 a share. One can also buy LDK off strength once it clears those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

  • [By Bryan Murphy]

    Three weeks ago, I recommended Real Goods Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:RSOL) as a buy. Though the stock was still drifting in the shadow of a huge May pullback - from a high of $7.17 to a low of $2.13 by mid-June - RSOL was finding some support at key moving average lines, and even pushing up and off of them. Not many of you (and I'm using "you" interchangeably with "investors in general") seemed to care. So why am I looking at Real Goods Solar again now? Because, with competitors LDK Solar Co., Ltd (NYSE:LDK) and ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE:SOL) seeing their shares surge today, odds are good RSOL is going to get swept up in that move. Real Goods Solar shares are a better bet, however, in that - unlike SOL and LDK - they aren't overbought yet.

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: Statoil ASA (STO)

Statoil ASA (Statoil), incorporated on September 18, 1972, is an integrated energy company primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had business operations in 41 countries and territories. Effective from January 1, 2011, the Company�� segments were Development and Production Norway; Development and Production International; Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy; Fuel & Retail, Other. As of 31 December 2011, the Company had proved reserves of 2,276 million barrels (mmbbl) and 3,150 billion cubic meters (bcm) (equivalent to 17,681 trillion cubic feet (tcf)) of natural gas, corresponding to aggregate proved reserves of 5,426 mmboe. In December 2011, the Company acquired Brigham Exploration Company. On April 14, 2011, Statoil's formation of a joint venture and sale of 40% of the Peregrino field off the coast of Brazil to the Sinochem Group was closed. With effect from January 2011, Statoil formed a joint venture with PTTEP of Thailand in its oil sands business and, as part of that transaction, sold PTTEP a 40% interest in the leases in Alberta, Canada. Statoil retains 60% ownership and operatorship of the oil sands project. In June 2012, the Company divested its 54% interest in Statoil Fuel & Retail ASA to Alimentation Couche-Tard.

Development and Production Norway

Development and Production Norway (DPN) consists of the Company�� field development and operational activities on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Development and Production Norway is the operator of 44 developed fields on the NCS. Statoil's equity and entitlement production on the NCS was 1.316 mmboe per day in 2011, which was about 71% of Statoil's total production. Acting as operator, DPN is responsible for approximately 72% of all oil and gas production on the NCS. In 2011, its average daily production of oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) on the NCS was 693 mboe, while its average daily gas production on the NCS was 99.1 mmcm (3.5 b! illion cubic feet (bcf)). The Company has an ownership interests in exploration acreage throughout the licensed parts of the NCS, both within and outside its production areas. It participates in 227 licenses on the NCS and is the operator for 171 of them. As of 31 December 2011, Statoil had a total of 1,369 mmbbl of proved oil reserves and 444 bcm (15.7 tcf) of proved natural gas reserves on the NCS. Total entitlement liquids and gas production in 2011 amounted to 1,316 mmboe per day.

Statoil's NCS portfolio consists of licenses in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. It has organized its production operations into four business clusters: Operations South, Operations North Sea West, Operations North Sea East and Operations North. The Operations South and Operations North Sea West and East clusters cover its licenses in the North Sea. Operations North covers the Company�� licenses in the Norwegian Sea and in the Barents Sea, while partner-operated fields cover the entire NCS and are included internally in the Operations South business cluster. During 2011, it two Statoil-operated oil discoveries: the Aldous discovery (PL265) in the North Sea and the Skrugard discovery (PL532) in the Barents Sea. The Aldous Major South discovery in PL265 on the Utsira Height in the Sleipner area is situated 140 kilometers west of Stavanger and 35 kilometers south of the Grane field. The Skrugard discovery is located about 250 kilometers off the coast from the Melkoya LNG plant in Hammerfest.

As of December 31, 2011, the Company�� fields under development included the Gudrun, Valemon, Visund South, Hyme, Stjerne, Vigdis North-East, Skuld, Vilje South, Skarv, and Marulk. In 2011, the Company�� total entitlement oil and NGL production in Norway was 252 mmbbl, and gas production was 36.2 bcm (1,287 bcf). The main producing fields in the Operations South area are Statfjord, Snorre, Tordis, Vigdis, Sleipner and partner-operated fields. Operations North Sea East is a gas area tha! t also co! ntains quantities of oil. The area includes the Troll, Fram, Vega, Oseberg and Tune fields. The Company�� producing fields in the Operations North area are Asgard, Mikkel, Yttergryta, Heidrun, Kristin, Tyrihans, Norne, Urd, Alve, Njord, Snohvit and Morvin.

Development and Production International

Development and Production International (DPI) is responsible for the development and production of oil and gas outside the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). In 2011, the segment was engaged in production in 12 countries: Canada, the United States, Brazil, Venezuela, Angola, Nigeria, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Russia and the United Kingdom. In 2011, DPI produced 28.9% of Statoil's total equity production of oil and gas. Statoil has exploration licenses in North America (Gulf of Mexico, Canada and Alaska), South America and sub-Saharan Africa (Brazil, Cuba, Suriname, Venezuela, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania), Middle East and North Africa (Libya and Iran) and Europe and Asia (the Faeroes, Greenland, the United Kingdom, Azerbaijan and Indonesia). The main sanctioned development projects in which DPI is involved are in the United States, Angola and Canada. The Brigham Exploration Company acquisition added production of approximately 21 mboe per day (as of December) to Statoil's production and gave access to 1,500 square kilometers (375,000 acres) in the Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Williston Basin.

The Company has exploration licenses in North America (Gulf of Mexico, Canada and Alaska), South America and sub-Saharan Africa (Brazil, Cuba, Suriname, Venezuela, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania), Middle East and North Africa (Libya and Iran), and Europe and Asia (the Faroes, Greenland, the United Kingdom, Azerbaijan and Indonesia). It completed 16 wells in 2011. Five were announced as discoveries: the Mukuvo and Lira discoveries in Angola, the Gavea and Peregrino South discovery in Brazil and the Logan discovery in Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Statoil acquired in! terests i! n six new licenses in Indonesia in 2011. Statoil has activities in the United States, with approximately 300 exploration leases in the GoM and 66 in Alaska. It is also an operator and partner in exploration licenses off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada. Statoil is operator and partner in exploration licenses off the coast of Newfoundland (11,138 square kilometers). It has exploration licenses in Brazil, Cuba, Suriname, Venezuela, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania. The Company has licenses in Libya, Iran, Faroes, Greenland, the United Kingdom, Azerbaijan and Indonesia. In 2011, Statoil's petroleum production outside Norway amounted to an average of 334 mboe per day of entitlement production and 534 mboe per day of equity production.

The Company has activities in the United States Gulf of Mexico, the Appalachian region, south-west Texas, the Williston Basin, off the East Coast of Canada and in the oil sands of Alberta, Canada. It also has a representative office in Mexico City. Offshore, the Company has production interests in Hibernia and Terra Nova, and interests in two development projects. Its development and production activities in South America and sub-Saharan Africa comprise the Peregrino operatorship in Brazil, the Petrocedeno project in Venezuela, the Agbami offshore field in Nigeria and four Angolan offshore blocks. Statoil's development and production in the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, primarily encompassed Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Iran and Iraq. The Company�� Development and Production in Europe and Asia primarily comprises Azerbaijan, Russia, United Kingdom and Ireland.

Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy

Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy (MPR) is responsible for the transportation, processing, manufacturing, marketing and trading of crude oil, natural gas, liquids and refined products, and for developing business opportunities in renewables. It runs two refineries, two gas processing plants, one methanol plant and three crude! oil term! inals. MPR is also responsible for marketing gas supplies originating from the Norwegian state's direct financial interest (SDFI). In total, it is responsible for marketing approximately 80% of all Norwegian gas exports. In 2011, Statoil sold 36.1 bcm (1.3 tcf) of natural gas from the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) on its own behalf, in addition to approximately 33.5 bcm (1.2 tcf) of NCS gas on behalf of the Norwegian state. Statoil's total European gas sales, including third-party gas, amounted to 79.8 bcm (2.9 tcf) in 2011, of which 39.5 bcm (1.4 tcf) was gas sold on behalf of the Norwegian state. The Natural Gas business cluster is responsible for Statoil's marketing and trading of natural gas worldwide, for power and emissions trading and for overall gas supply planning. In 2011, the Company sold 36.1 bcm (1.3 tcf) of natural gas from the NCS on its own behalf, in addition to approximately 33.5 bcm (1.2 tcf) of NCS gas on behalf of the Norwegian state. Statoil's total European gas sales, including third-party gas, amounted to 79.8 bcm (2.9 tcf) in 2011, of which 39.5 bcm (1.4 tcf) was gas sold on behalf of the Norwegian state. In addition, it sold 5.5 bcm (0.2 tcf) of gas originating from its international positions, mainly in Azerbaijan and the United States, of which 2.7 bcm (0.1 tcf) was entitlement gas. As technical service provider (TSP), Statoil is responsible for the operation, maintenance and further development of the Karsto gas processing plant on behalf of the operator Gassco.

Statoil is the seller of crude oil, operating from sales offices in Stavanger, Oslo, London, Singapore, Stamford and Calgary and selling and trading crude oil, condensate, NGL and refined products. Statoil holds the lease for the South Riding Point crude oil terminal in the Bahamas, which includes, oil storage as well as loading and unloading facilities. It also operates the Mongstad terminal and has shared ownership with Petoro. The Company is a majority owner (79%) and operator of the Mongstad ref! inery in ! Norway, which has a crude oil and condensate distillation capacity of 220,000 barrels per day. It is the sole owner and operator of the Kalundborg refinery in Denmark, which has a crude oil and condensate distillation capacity of 118,000 barrels per day. In addition, it has rights to 10% of production capacity at the Shell-operated refinery in Pernis in the Netherlands, which has a crude oil distillation capacity of 400,000 barrels per day. The Company�� methanol operations consist of an 81.7% interest in the gas-based methanol plant at Tjeldbergodden, Norway, which has a design capacity of 0.95 million tons per year. It also operates the Oseberg Transportation System (36.2% interest), including the Sture crude oil terminal.

Technology, Projects and Drilling

Technology, Projects and Drilling (TPD) is responsible, as a global service provider to Statoil, for delivering projects and wells and for providing support through global expertise, standards and procurement. TPD is also responsible developing and implementing new technological solutions. Statoil's research and development portfolio is organized in seven programs covering the upstream building blocks. The research and development organization operates and develops laboratories and test facilities and has an academia program that addresses cooperation with universities and research institutes.

Global Strategy and Business Development

Global Strategy and Business Development (GSB) was established in 2011, with its main office in London. GSB sets the direction for Statoil and identifies, develops and delivers opportunities for global growth.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Statoil ASA�(NYSE: STO) was raised to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

    Workday Inc. (NYSE:�WDAY) was reiterated as Buy with a price target raised to $85 from $75 at Canaccord Genuity.

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd.(JASO)

JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of photovoltaic solar cells and solar products, which convert sunlight into electricity in the People's Republic of China. The company?s principal products include monocrystalline and multicrystalline solar cells, as well as various solar modules. It also provides silicon wafer and solar cell processing services. The company sells its products primarily under the JA Solar brand name, as well as produces equipment for original equipment manufacturing customers under their brand names. It sells its solar cell and module products primarily to module manufacturers, system integrators, project developers, and distributors in the Germany, Italy, the United States, Hong Kong, Spain, India, the Czech Republic, France, and South Korea. The company has strategic partnerships with various solar power companies, such as BP Solar, Solar-Fabrik, and MEMC/SunEdison. JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 2005 and is based in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Notable earnings reports currently on tap for next week: Qihu 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: QIHU), Avago Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: AVGO), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Joy Global Inc. (NYSE: JOY), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (NYSE: KKD), and ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL).

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: Contango Oil & Gas Co (MCF)

Contango Oil & Gas Company (Contango) is an independent natural gas and oil company. The Company�� core business is to explore, develop, produce and acquire natural gas and oil properties onshore and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico in water-depths of less than 300 feet. Contango Operators, Inc. (COI), its wholly owned subsidiary, acts as operator on its properties.

Offshore Gulf of Mexico Activities

Contango, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, COI and its partially owned affiliate, Republic Exploration LLC (REX), conducts exploration activities in the Gulf of Mexico. COI drills, and operates its wells in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as attends lease sales and acquires leasehold acreage. As of August 24, 2012, the Company's offshore production was approximately 83.5 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, which consists of seven federal and five state of Louisiana wells in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico. These 12 operated wells produce through the four platforms: Eugene Island 24 Platform, Eugene Island 11 Platform, Ship Shoal 263 Platform, Vermilion 170 Platform and Other Activities.

This third-party owned and operated production platform at Eugene Island 24 was designed with a capacity of 100 million cubic feet per day and 3,000 barrels of oil per day. This platform services production from the Company�� Dutch #1, #2 and #3 federal wells. From this platform, the gas flows through an American Midstream pipeline into a third-party owned and operated on-shore processing facility at Burns Point, Louisiana, and the condensate flows through an ExxonMobil pipeline to on-shore markets and multiple refineries. As of August 24, 2012, it was producing approximately 22.5 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, from this platform. The Company finished laying six inches auxiliary flowlines from the Dutch #1, #2, and #3 wells to its Eugene Island 11 Platform and is in the process of redirecting production from the Eugene Island 24! Platform to the Eugene Island 11 Platform.

The Company�� Company-owned and operated platform at Eugene Island 11 was designed with a capacity of 500 million cubic feet equivalent per day and 6,000 barrels of oil per day. These platforms service production from the Company�� five Mary Rose wells, which are all located in state of Louisiana waters, as well as its Dutch #4 and Dutch #5 wells, which are both located in federal waters. From these platforms, it can flow its gas to an American Midstream pipeline through its eight inches pipeline and from there to a third-party owned and operated on-shore processing facility at Burns Point, Louisiana. It can flow its condensate through an ExxonMobil pipeline to on-shore markets and multiple refineries.

The Company�� gas and condensate can flow to its Eugene Island 63 auxiliary platform through its 20 inches pipeline, which has been designed with a capacity of 330 million cubic feet equivalent per day and 6,000 barrels of oil per day, and from there to third-party owned and operated on-shore processing facilities near Patterson, Louisiana, through an ANR pipeline. As of August 24, 2012, it was producing approximately 44.6 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, from this platform.

The Company�� owned and operated platform at Ship Shoal 263 was designed with a capacity of 40 million cubic feet equivalent per day and 5,000 barrels of oil per day. This platform services natural gas and condensate production from our Nautilus well, which flows through the Transcontinental Gas Pipeline to onshore processing plants. As of August 24, 2012, it was producing approximately 3.0 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, from this platform. As of June 30, 2012, the Company owed a 100% working interest and 80% net revenue interest in this well and platform.

The Company�� owned and operated platform at Vermilion 170 was designed with a capacity of 60 million cubic feet equivalent per ! day and 2! ,000 barrels of oil per day. This platform services natural gas and condensate production from its Swimmy well, which flows through the Sea Robin Pipeline to onshore processing plants. As of August 24, 2012, it was producing approximately 13.4 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Contango, from this platform.

On July 10, 2012, the Company spud its South Timbalier 75 prospect (Fang) with the Spartan 303 rig. It has a 100% working interest in this wildcat exploration prospect. On July 3, 2012, the Company spud its Ship Shoal 134 prospect (Eagle) with the Hercules 205 rig. The Company purchased the deep mineral rights on Ship Shoal 134 from an independent third-party. It has a 100% working interest in this wildcat exploration prospect. On December 21, 2011, the Company purchased an additional 3.66% working interest (2.67% net revenue interest) in Mary Rose #5 (previously Eloise North). The Company has a 47.05% working interest (38.1% net revenue interest) in Dutch #5.

Offshore Properties

During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2012 (fiscal 2012), State Lease 19396 expired and was returned to the state of Louisiana. As of August 24, 2012, the interests owned by Contango through its affiliated entities in the Gulf of Mexico, which were capable of producing natural gas or oil included Eugene Island 10 #D-1, Eugene Island 10 #E-1, Eugene Island 10 #F-1, Eugene Island 10 #G-1, Eugene Island 10 #I-1, S-L 18640 #1, S-L 19266 #1, S-L 19266 #2, S-L 18860 #1, S-L 19266 #3 and S-L 19261, Ship Shoal 263, Vermilion 170 and West Delta 36. As of August 24, 2012, interests owned by Contango through its related entities in leases in the Gulf of Mexico included Eugene Island 11, East Breaks 369, South Timbalier 97, Ship Shoal 121, Ship Shoal 122, Brazos Area 543, Ship Shoal 134 and South Timbalier 75.

Onshore Exploration and Properties

As of August 24, 2012, the Company had invested in Alta Energy Canada Partnership (Alta Energy) to purchase over! 60,000 a! cres in the Kaybob Duvernay. Contango has a 2% interest in Alta Energy and a 5% interest in the Kaybob Duvernay project. On April 9, 2012, the Company announced that through its wholly owned subsidiary, Contaro Company, it had entered into a Limited Liability Company Agreement (the LLC Agreement) to form Exaro Energy III LLC (Exaro). The Company owns approximately a 45% interest in Exaro. Exaro has entered into an Earning and Development Agreement (the EDA Agreement) with Encana Oil & Gas (USA) Inc. (Encana) to provide funding to continue the development drilling program in a defined area of Encana�� Jonah field asset located in Sublette County, Wyoming.

As of June 30, 2012, the Exaro-Encana venture had three rigs drilling, has completed five wells and achieved first production. As of August 24, 2012, the Company had invested to lease approximately 25,000 acres in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS), a shale play in central Louisiana and Mississippi.

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: Freedom Energy Holdings Inc (FDMF)

Freedom Energy Holdings, Inc. (FDMF), incorporated in June 2005, is a holding company with a focus on the identification of opportunities within the oil and energy sectors. KC-9000 is the Company�� heavy oil technology, to assist in the recovery of heavy oil. As of December 31, 2011, the Company research had developed and shown a new product SR-139 at breaking down asphalt shingles allowing the extraction and recovery of hydrocarbons.

KC-9000 is a micro-emulsion technology. KC 9000 is a micro-emulsion developed to assist in the recovery and extraction of heavy based hydrocarbons that are saturated with high metals and paraffin content. KC 9000 is used for tank cleaning processes. By injecting KC 9000 directly into the tank port holes, at the tank bottom, with the emulsifies turning into an easily extractable slurry.

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: ENSCO plc(ESV)

Ensco plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services to the oil and gas industry. The company engages in the drilling of offshore oil and natural gas wells by providing its drilling rigs and crews under contracts with international, government-owned, and independent oil and gas companies. As of February 15, 2010, it owned and operated 42 jackup rigs, 4 ultra-deepwater semisubmersible rigs, and 1 barge rig. The company also has 4 ultra-deepwater semisubmersible rigs under construction. It operates in Asia, the Middle East, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Africa, and North and South America. The company was formerly known as Ensco International plc and changed its name to Ensco plc in March 2010. Ensco plc was founded in 1975 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Buckingham, Chief Investment Officer, Al Frank Asset Management, Inc. (AFAM)]

    Ensco PLC (ESV) is the world's second largest offshore driller. The firm operates across six continents with one of the newest jackup and deepwater fleets in the contract drilling industry.

  • [By Chris Hill]

    In this segment, Jason and Taylor tell investors why they'll be watching shares of Transocean (NYSE: RIG  ) , Ensco (NYSE: ESV  ) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) this week.

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD)

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (Enterprise), incorporated on April 9, 1998, owns and operates natural gas liquids (NGLs) related businesses of Enterprise Products Company (EPCO). The Company is a North American provider of midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, NGLs, crude oil, refined products and certain petrochemicals. Its midstream energy asset network links producers of natural gas, NGLs and crude oil from supply basins in the United States, Canada and the Gulf of Mexico with domestic consumers and international markets. Its midstream energy operations include natural gas gathering, treating, processing, transportation and storage; NGL transportation, fractionation, storage, and import and export terminals; crude oil gathering and transportation, storage and terminals; offshore production platforms; petrochemical and refined products transportation and services; and a marine transportation business that operates on the United States inland and Intracoastal Waterway systems and in the Gulf of Mexico. Its assets include approximately 50,000 miles of onshore and offshore pipelines; 200 million barrels of storage capacity for NGLs, petrochemicals, refined products and crude oil; and 14 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity. In addition, its asset portfolio includes 24 natural gas processing plants, 21 NGL and propylene fractionators, six offshore hub platforms located in the Gulf of Mexico, a butane isomerization complex, NGL import and export terminals, and octane isobutylene production facilities. The Company operates in five business segments: NGL Pipelines & Services; Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines & Services; Onshore Crude Oil Pipelines & Services; Offshore Pipelines & Services, and Petrochemical & Refined Products Services.

NGL Pipelines & Services

The Company�� NGL Pipelines & Services business segment includes its natural gas processing plants and related NGL marketing activities; approximately 16,700 miles of NGL pipel! ines; NGL and related product storage facilities; and 14 NGL fractionators. This segment also includes its import and export terminal operations. At the core of its natural gas processing business are 24 processing plants located across Colorado, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, Texas and Wyoming. Natural gas produced at the wellhead (especially in association with crude oil) contains varying amounts of NGLs. Once the mixed component NGLs are extracted by a natural gas processing plant, they are transported to a centralized fractionation facility for separation into purity NGL products. Once processed, this natural gas is available for sale through its natural gas marketing activities. Its NGL marketing activities generate revenues from the sale and delivery of NGLs it takes title to through its natural gas processing activities and open market and contract purchases from third parties. Its NGL marketing activities utilize a fleet of approximately 670 railcars, the majority of which are leased from third parties.

The Company�� NGL pipelines transport mixed NGLs and other hydrocarbons from natural gas processing facilities, refineries and import terminals to fractionation plants and storage facilities; distribute and collect NGL products to and from fractionation plants, storage and terminal facilities, petrochemical plants, export facilities and refineries, and deliver propane to customers along the Dixie Pipeline and certain sections of the Mid-America Pipeline System. Revenues from its NGL pipeline transportation agreements are based upon a fixed fee per gallon of liquids transported multiplied by the volume delivered. Certain of its NGL pipelines offer firm capacity reservation services. It collects storage revenues under its NGL and related product storage contracts based on the number of days a customer has volumes in storage multiplied by a storage fee. In addition, it charges customers throughput fees based on volumes delivered into and subsequently withdrawn from storage. Its ! principal! NGL pipelines include Mid-America Pipeline System, South Texas NGL Pipeline System, Seminole Pipeline, Dixie Pipeline, Chaparral NGL System, Louisiana Pipeline System, Skelly-Belvieu Pipeline, Promix NGL Gathering System, Houston Ship Channel pipeline, Rio Grande Pipeline, Panola Pipeline and Lou-Tex NGL Pipeline. It operates its NGL pipelines with the exception of the Tri-States pipeline.

The Company�� NGL operations include import and export facilities located on the Houston Ship Channel in southeast Texas. It owns an import and export facility located on land it leases from Oiltanking Houston LP. Its import facility can offload NGLs from tanker vessels at rates up to 14,000 barrels per hour depending on the product. During the year ended December 31, 2012, its average combined NGL import and export volumes were 132 thousand barrels per day. In addition to its Houston Ship Channel import/export terminal, it owns a barge dock also located on the Houston Ship Channel, which can load or offload two barges of NGLs or other products simultaneously at rates up to 5,000 barrels per hour.

The Company owns or have interests in 14 NGL fractionators located in Texas and Louisiana. NGL fractionators separate mixed NGL streams into purity NGL products. The primary sources of mixed NGLs fractionated in the United States are domestic natural gas processing plants, crude oil refineries and imports of butane and propane mixtures. Mixed NGLs sourced from domestic natural gas processing plants and crude oil refineries are transported by NGL pipelines and by railcar and truck to NGL fractionation facilities.

The Company�� NGL fractionation facilities process mixed NGL streams for third party customers and support its NGL marketing activities. It earns revenues from NGL fractionation under fee-based arrangements, including a level of demand-based fees. At its Norco facility in Louisiana, it performs fractionation services for certain customers under percent-of-liquids co! ntracts. ! Its fee-based fractionation customers retain title to the NGLs, which it processes for them. Its NGL fractionators include Mont Belvieu fractionator, Shoup and Armstrong fractionator, Hobbs NGL fractionator, Norco NGL fractionator, Promix NGL fractionators and BRF fractionators.

Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines & Services

The Company�� Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines & Services business segment includes approximately 19,900 miles of onshore natural gas pipeline systems, which provide for the gathering and transportation of natural gas in Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas and Wyoming. It leases salt dome natural gas storage facilities located in Texas and Louisiana and own a salt dome storage cavern in Texas, which are integral to its pipeline operations. This segment also includes its related natural gas marketing activities.

The Company�� onshore natural gas pipeline systems and storage facilities provide for the gathering and transportation of natural gas from producing regions, such as the San Juan, Barnett Shale, Permian, Piceance, Greater Green River, Haynesville Shale and Eagle Ford Shale supply basins in the western United States. In addition, these systems receive natural gas production from the Gulf of Mexico through coastal pipeline interconnects with offshore pipelines. Its onshore natural gas pipelines receive natural gas from producers, other pipelines or shippers at the wellhead or through system interconnects and redeliver the natural gas to processing facilities, local gas distribution companies, industrial or municipal customers, storage facilities or to other onshore pipelines.

Its onshore natural gas pipelines generates revenues from transportation agreements under which shippers are billed a fee per unit of volume transported multiplied by the volume gathered or delivered. Its onshore natural gas pipelines offer firm capacity reservation services whereby the shipper pays a contractually stated fee based on the level of through! put capac! ity reserved in its pipelines whether or not the shipper actually utilizes such capacity. Under its natural gas storage contracts, there are typically two components of revenues monthly demand payments, which are associated with a customer�� storage capacity reservation and paid regardless of actual usage, and storage fees per unit of volume stored at its facilities. The Company�� natural gas marketing activities generate revenues from the sale and delivery of natural gas obtained from third party well-head purchases, regional natural gas processing plants and the open market.

Onshore Crude Oil Pipelines & Services

The Company�� Onshore Crude Oil Pipelines & Services business segment includes approximately 5,100 miles of onshore crude oil pipelines, crude oil storage terminals located in Oklahoma and Texas, and its crude oil marketing activities. Its onshore crude oil pipeline systems gather and transport crude oil in New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas to refineries, centralized storage terminals and connecting pipelines. Revenue from crude oil transportation is based upon a fixed fee per barrel transported multiplied by the volume delivered.

The Company owns crude oil terminal facilities in Cushing, Oklahoma and Midland, Texas, which are used to store crude oil volumes for it and its customers. Under its crude oil terminaling agreements, it charges customers for crude oil storage based on the number of days a customer has volumes in storage multiplied by a contractual storage fee. With respect to storage capacity reservation agreements, it collects a fee for reserving storage capacity for customers at its terminals. In addition, it charges its customers throughput (or pumpover) fees based on volumes withdrawn from its terminals. It provides fee-based trade documentation services whereby it documents the transfer of title for crude oil volumes transacted between buyers and sellers at its terminals. The Company�� crude oil marketing activities generate revenues! from the! sale and delivery of crude oil obtained from producers or on the open market.

Offshore Pipelines & Services

The Company�� Offshore Pipelines & Services business segment serves active drilling and development regions, including deepwater production fields, in the northern Gulf of Mexico offshore Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. This segment includes approximately 2,300 miles of offshore natural gas and crude oil pipelines and six offshore hub platforms. Its offshore Gulf of Mexico pipelines provide for the gathering and transportation of natural gas or crude oil. Revenue from its offshore pipelines is derived from fee-based agreements whereby the customer is charged a fee per unit of volume gathered or transported multiplied by the volume delivered. Poseidon Oil Pipeline Company, L.L.C. (Poseidon), in which it has a 36% equity method investment, purchases crude oil from producers and shippers at a receipt point (at a fixed or index-based price less a location differential) and then sells quantities of crude oil at onshore Louisiana locations (at the same fixed or index-based price, as applicable).

The Company�� offshore platforms are components of its pipeline operations. Platforms are used to interconnect the offshore pipeline network; provide means to perform pipeline maintenance; locate compression, separation and production handling equipment and similar assets, and conduct drilling operations during the initial development phase of an oil and natural gas property. Revenues from offshore platform services consist of demand fees and commodity charges. Revenue from commodity charges is based on a fixed-fee per unit of volume delivered to the platform multiplied by the total volume of each product delivered.

Petrochemical & Refined Products Services

The Company�� Petrochemical & Refined Products Services business segment consists of propylene fractionation plants, pipelines and related marketing activities; a butane isom! erization! facility and related pipeline system; octane enhancement and isobutylene production facilities; refined products pipelines, including its Products Pipeline System, and related marketing activities, and marine transportation and other services.

The Company�� propylene fractionation and related activities consist of seven propylene fractionation plants (six located in Mont Belvieu, Texas and a seventh in Baton Rouge, Louisiana), propylene pipeline systems aggregating approximately 680 miles in length and related petrochemical marketing activities. This business includes an export facility and associated above-ground polymer grade propylene storage spheres located in Seabrook, Texas. Results of operations for its polymer grade propylene plants are dependent upon toll processing arrangements and petrochemical marketing activities. The toll processing arrangements include a base-processing fee per gallon (or other unit of measurement). Its petrochemical marketing activities include the purchase and fractionation of refinery grade propylene obtained in the open market and generate revenues from the sale and delivery of products obtained through propylene fractionation. The revenues from its propylene pipelines are based upon a transportation fee per unit of volume multiplied by the volume delivered to the customer. As part of its petrochemical marketing activities, it has refinery grade propylene purchase and polymer grade propylene sales agreements. Its butane isomerization business includes three butamer reactor units and eight associated deisobutanizer units located in Mont Belvieu, Texas, which comprise the commercial isomerization facility in the United States.

The Company�� commercial isomerization units convert normal butane into mixed butane, which is fractionated into isobutane, isobutane and residual normal butane. The uses of isobutane are for the production of propylene oxide, isooctane, isobutylene and alkylate for motor gasoline. These processing arrangements inclu! de a base! -processing fee per gallon (or other unit of measurement). Its isomerization business also generates revenues from the sale of natural gasoline created as a by-product of the isomerization process. The Company owns and operates an octane enhancement production facility located in Mont Belvieu, Texas, which produces isooctane, isobutylene and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE). The products produced by this facility are used in reformulated motor gasoline blends. The isobutane feedstocks consumed in the production of these products are supplied by its isomerization units. The Company owns a facility located on the Houston Ship Channel, which produces high purity isobutylene (HPIB). The feedstock for this plant is produced by its octane enhancement facility located at its Mont Belvieu complex. HPIB is used in the production of alkylated phenols used as antioxidants, lube oil additives, butyl rubber and resins.

Refined products pipelines and related activities consist of its Products Pipeline System, equity method investment in Centennial Pipeline LLC (Centennial) and refined products marketing activities. The Products Pipeline System transports refined products, and petrochemicals, such as ethylene and propylene and NGLs, such as propane and normal butane. These refined products are produced by refineries and include gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, kerosene, distillates and heating oil. Refined products also include blend stocks, such as raffinate and naphtha. Blend stocks are used to produce gasoline or as a feedstock for certain petrochemicals. The Centennial Pipeline intersects its Products Pipeline System near Creal Springs, Illinois, and loops the Products Pipeline System between Beaumont, Texas and south Illinois. In addition, it has refined products terminals located at Aberdeen, Mississippi and Boligee, Alabama adjacent to the Tombigbee River and on the Houston Ship Channel in Pasadena, Texas. Its related marketing activities generate revenues from the sale and delivery of refin! ed produc! ts obtained from third parties on the open market.

The Company�� marine transportation business consists of tow boats and tank barges, which are used to transport refined products, crude oil, asphalt, condensate, heavy fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas and other petroleum products along inland and intracoastal the United States waterways. Its marine transportation assets service refinery and storage terminal customers along the Mississippi River, the intracoastal waterway between Texas and Florida and the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway system. It owns a shipyard and repair facility located in Houma, Louisiana and marine fleeting facilities in Bourg, Louisiana and Channelview, Texas. Other services consist of the distribution of lubrication oils and specialty chemicals and the bulk transportation of fuels by truck, in Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Kansas and the Rocky Mountain region of the United States.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Nathan Slaughter]

    Investors must typically make the same choice, which is why High-Yield Investing is dedicated to stocks like Enterprise Product Partners (NYSE: EPD) -- which trades with a current 4.6% yield but has raised its dividend 37 times in a row and 48 times since first paying a dividend in 1998.

Top 10 Energy Stocks For 2014: GulfMark Offshore Inc.(GLF)

GulfMark Offshore, Inc. provides offshore marine services primarily to companies involved in the offshore exploration and production of oil and natural gas. The company?s vessels provide various services supporting the construction, positioning, and ongoing operation of offshore oil and natural gas drilling rigs and platforms, and related infrastructure. Its vessels transport drilling materials, supplies, and personnel to offshore facilities, as well as move and position drilling structures, and provide anchor handling and towing services. The company?s fleet includes anchor handling, towing, and supply vessels; fast supply vessels; platform supply vessels; specialty vessels, including towing and oil response; and small anchor handling, towing, and supply vessels. GulfMark also offers management services to other vessel owners. As of April 27, 2011, its active fleet included 74 owned vessels and 15 managed vessels. It primarily serves integrated oil and natural gas compani es, large independent oil and natural gas exploration and production companies working in international markets, and foreign government-owned or controlled oil and natural gas companies, as well as companies that provide logistics, construction, and other services to such oil and natural gas companies and foreign government organizations. The company primarily operates in the North Sea, Southeast Asia, and the Americas. GulfMark Offshore, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Jim Rogers’ 5 Best & Worst Regions for Commodity Investing

“One word: Angola.”

In what seems like a play on the classically awkward “plastics” scene from The Graduate, commodities guru Jim Rogers counts Angola as a top pick for commodities investors.

Rogers tells The Daily Ticker that in addition to Asia (a seemingly perennial favorite), there are great opportunities in Africa, as well one big one in South America.

“I said to my wife, ‘let’s move to Angola — we could live like kings,'” the genteel and bow-tied Rogers, author of “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets,” told the website on Monday. “She said, ‘you move to Angola; I don’t want to live like a queen in Angola’…but you could!”

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He includes one big surprise (or maybe not, given his commodity bent).

Read on for his picks for the best and worst commodity spots around the globe:

Luanda, Angola's capital cityAngola: The website cites Bloomberg stats in noting Africa’s second-biggest oil producer has been looking to boost foreign investment after almost three decades of civil war that ended in 2002. For would-be investors, the country has plans for the start of stock exchange trading in 2016, with a futures and commodities market in 2017. The economy, it notes, grew 7.4% in 2012. The downside, according to the Ticker? The cost of living is described as “astronomical by expat standards."

The site adds: "Money is subject to strict government controls, and decades of war means infrastructure and arable land are lacking.” Marketplace in Mekele, EthiopiaEthiopia: It’s come a long way since Live Aid, and famed 1930s dictator Haile Selassie, deified by Rastafarians everywhere, would be proud. The Financial Times notes the African country, once known for its closed economy and squabbles with neighboring Eritrea, has become an enticing prospect for investors.

“Members of Ethiopia’s diaspora are moving back and leading the way along with Chinese investors," the Ticler says. "They’re trading coffee and investing in health care and manufacturing.” House in Uruguay (Photo: AP)Uruguay: No, it’s not Brazil or Argentina, but their much smaller neighbor. The website says living in Uruguay will cost you 30% to 40% less than living in the U.S.  

“And if you do relocate or invest, the U.S. State Department reports Uruguay’s government has traditionally seen the importance of foreign investment, recognizing and enforcing property rights and contracts," the Ticker says.

It also noted that the strategist Jeremy Grantham recently named Uruguay a good place to invest in farmland in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

Jets flying over Lower Manhattan. (Photo: AP)United States: He’s not in a New York state of mind (and doesn't think much of other points west).

“I fly into New York and I say, ‘Gosh, it’s just not as exciting as it used to be. Unfortunately, the dynamic and the energy is in Asia, not America, for the most part now, whether we like it or not.” European Union flags (Photo: AP)Europe: He also doesn’t buy into Europe’s long-term prospects, no matter what other pundits might say about northern Europe versus southern Europe, rebounds, recessions and other such talk.

“Most of Europe, while exciting at the moment, is in decline,” he said, before conceding, “It depends on where in Europe. There are countries in Europe that are still reasonably exciting.” 

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Check out these stories on ThinkAdvisor:

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Mortgage Rates Slip as Doubts Simmer About Recovery

mortgage rates home buying housing market real estate federal reserveJonathan Alcorn/Bloomberg via Getty Images Average U.S. rates on fixed mortgages declined this week amid signs the economic recovery is slowing. Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan fell to 4.50 percent from 4.57 percent last week. The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage slipped to 3.54 percent from 3.59 percent last week. The retreat in the average rate of a 30-year mortgage comes just a couple of weeks after the rate reached a two-year high of 4.58 percent on Aug. 22. The average rate on a 15-year mortgage also hit a two-year high -- 3.60 percent -- that day. Overall, mortgage rates remain low by historical standards. Long-term mortgage rates have risen more than a full percentage point since May, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke first signaled that the central bank could begin reducing its monthly $85 billion in bond purchases this year if the economy looked strong enough. The purchases have been intended to keep long-term loan rates extremely low to encourage borrowing and lending. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Many economists had expected the Fed would to decide at its policy meeting this earlier this week to scale back the bond purchases. But on Wednesday, the central bank voted to continue the bond-buying program at the current levels. It also cut its economic growth forecasts for this year and 2014, warning that the upcoming debt ceiling and budget battles between the White House and Congress could pose risks to financial markets and the economy. Growth and hiring remain modest by the standards of a robust economic recovery. Employers have added an average of 180,000 jobs a month this year, about the same as last year and in 2011. From April through June, the economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate, little changed from its 2.8 percent rate in the quarter when the Fed began its bond buying. Concerns over the possibility that interest rates will continue to rise have spurred some homeowners to close deals quickly. U.S. sales of previously occupied homes rose 1.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That's the highest level since February 2007. To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country Monday through Wednesday each week. The average doesn't include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount. The average fee for a 30-year mortgage was steady at 0.7 point. The fee for a 15-year loan also was unchanged at 0.7 point. The average rate on a one-year adjustable-rate mortgage slipped to 2.65 percent from 2.67 percent. The fee was unchanged at 0.4 point. The average rate on a five-year adjustable mortgage fell to 3.11 percent from 3.22 percent. The fee was unchanged at 0.5 point.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

ISI Group Maintains “Buy” Rating on Intel After Developer Forum (INTC)

ISI Group announced on Thursday that it was reiterating its “Buy” rating on the Santa Clara-based semiconductor maker Intel Corp. (INTC) after the company revealed a number of exciting products at its annual Developer Forum, which took place on Wednesday.

At the Developer Conference, the company unveiled the first fanless ultrabook as well as a number of Android and Windows 8 smartphone and tablet devices that will be armed with new Intel chips. Sumit Dhanda, an analyst with ISI Group, added, “Tempering our concern is August notebook ODM production that was at least a little better than feared, along with a somewhat more upbeat tone from management at IDF. With servers apparently on track as well, we think the odds now favor Intel landing within the targeted range of its sales guidance.” As such, ISI Group reiterated its “Buy” rating on the stock along with a price target of $26.00 a share.

Intel shares inched lower on Thursday, shedding 0.79% on the day. The stock is up nearly 10% YTD.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Pandora Sticks It To Holders With Secondary Offering

Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) is supposed to be under a brand new Chief Executive officer, and we noted recently about waves and waves of insider selling. Now we are getting word that Pandora plans to increase its float with a secondary stock offering.

The online radio and music giant has now announced that it plans to commence an underwritten public offering of 10,000,000 shares of the company’s common stock under an effective registration statement. To make matters worse, an additional 4,000,000 shares of common stock will be sold by existing holders. Pandora even allocated up to an additional 2,100,000 shares to cover possible over-allotments for the offering if needed.

The use of proceeds is for general corporate purposes, which is said to include working capital and capital spending. The company also said that it reserves the right to use a portion of the net proceeds for potential acquisitions of businesses and products or technologies, while claiming that it has no current agreements or plans for such a deal.

Pandora’s offering group is rather large as you might expect. The bookrunners include J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Co-managers include Wells Fargo Securities, BofA Merrill Lynch, BMO Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity, Needham & Company, Pacific Crest Securities, Piper Jaffray and William Blair.

We would point out that Pandora’s shares closed up at $23.99 on Monday against a 52-week range of $7.08 to $24.43. Its market cap is now $4.2 billion before the effects of any of this offering.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Can Panera Recover After a Disappointing Second Quarter?

Panera Bread's (NASDAQ:PNRA) stock price was down more than 8 percent intraday on Wednesday, after the company’s less-than-stellar second quarter earnings announcement. While one earnings miss doesn't mean game over for Panera, the company also lowered its guidance for the rest of the year. Is Panera losing its footing in the quick casual restaurant space? Let's use our CHEAT SHEET investing framework to decide whether Panera is an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY.

C = Catalysts for the Stock's Movement

Panera reported second quarter earnings per share of $1.74, underperforming analysts' estimates by $0.02. The stock price has responded severely to this earnings miss, and is down 8 percent in Wednesday's intraday session. However, Panera demonstrated mostly positive results in its report.

Comparable store sales — arguably the most important metric in the restaurant and retail industries — increased 3.8 percent. Diluted EPS and revenues were up 16 percent and 11 percent, respectively, for the quarter. Investors were disappointed by a decreased yearly earnings guidance due to lower projections for same-store sales growth.

E = Excellent Performance Relative to Peers?

Panera stacks up well against two of its biggest competitors in the quick service restaurant space: Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX). All three of the companies have high price to earnings multiples relative to the S&P 500, because of the attractive economics and high growth rate of the quick service restaurant space.

However, Panera's multiple is the lowest of the three. Additionally, it has the lowest price to sales multiple, and the lowest price to earnings growth ratio, implying that it is the best value of the group at its current price level. Panera has a high return on invested capital thanks to its franchising model, through which it receives annual royalties from franchisees at a low operating cost.

PNRA CMG SBUX
Trailing P/E 27.46 42.33 34.20
Price/Sales 2.42 4.17 3.61
PEG Ratio 1.41 1.84 1.58
Profit Margin 8.22% 10.13% 10.18%
ROIC 23.03% 22.68% 25.89%

T = Trends Support the Company's Industry

There's a reason why Panera and two of its biggest competitors all have high price to earnings multiples, compared with the S&P 500 — the quick service restaurant industry is a rapidly growing industry in the U.S. A Hoover's study estimates that sales growth in the quick service restaurant space will increase every year by 8 percent until 2016. Diners have been opting for these types of restaurants instead of fast food, because they are generally healthier and have higher quality food. However, with the industry's low barriers to entry, Panera and other established restaurant chains will face increasing competition in the coming years, which may hurt both sales and margins.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Solid, Except for Today

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Panera is currently trading at around $166.60, below both its 200-day moving average of $174.96, and its 50-day moving average of $187.11. As you can see from both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the chart below, the stock has experienced a long-term uptrend. However, the share price was down more than $15 in Wednesday's intraday session, after the second quarter earnings report. Panera's stock has a history of responding sharply to earnings news. Investors thinking about initiating a long position in the stock could use the recent pullback as an opportunity to buy shares at a cheaper price.

Conclusion

While Panera Bread's second quarter earnings announcement disappointed investors, the company continues to demonstrate same-store sales growth, healthy profit margins, and solid revenue and earnings growth. On a comparative basis, Panera is cheaper than competitors Chipotle and Starbucks.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Can AIG Continue Its Surge Higher?

With shares of American International Group (NYSE:AIG) trading around $45, is AIG an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

AIG is an international insurance company, serving customers in a wide range of countries around the world. AIG companies serve commercial, institutional, and individual customers through property-casualty networks of any insurer. In addition, AIG's companies are providers of life insurance and retirement services. AIG's segments include Chartis, SunAmerica Financial Group, Aircraft Leasing, and Other Operations. The company suffered greatly during the 2008 Financial Crisis but is now on the road to recovery.

AIG and GE Capital (NYSE:GE) have been designated by the Financial Stability Oversight Council as being non-bank "systemically important financial institutions." The two companies will now be subject to regulation under the Dodd-Frank financial reform act, which means the companies will face government scrutiny, as they could pose a threat to a financial system in crisis. Insurance companies will continue to rise to demand as new and existing risks continue to be of concern for businesses and consumers worldwide.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

AIG stock has been steadily trending higher over the last couple of years. The stock is now bumping-up against selling pressure so it may need time here before its next move. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, AIG is trading slightly above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

AIG

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of AIG options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

AIG Options

29.93%

6%

4%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Flat

Average

August Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Decreasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on AIG’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for AIG look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-12.87%

-123.75%

-153.81%

33.00%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-9.20%

-4.09%

38.76%

2.64%

Earnings Reaction

5.67%

3.13%

-7.15%

1.62%

AIG has seen mostly decreasing earnings and mixed revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have generally been pleased with AIG’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has AIG stock done relative to its peers, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKB), American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG), OneBeacon Insurance Group (NYSE:OB), and sector?

AIG

Berkshire Hathaway

American Financial Group

OneBeacon Insurance Group

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

29.35%

28.18%

29.12%

5.04%

23.61%

AIG has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

AIG is an international insurance company that is now known as a non-bank systemically important financial institution and subject to Dodd-Frank regulations. The stock has been steadily trending higher but is now up against a selling zone where it may spending some time before making its next move. Over the last four quarters, earnings have mostly been decreasing while revenue figures have been mixed, although investors in the company have generally been pleased with what they’ve heard during earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, AIG has been a year-to-date performance leader. WAIT AND SEE what AIG does this coming quarter.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Should Americans Fear Confiscation of Their Retirement Wealth?

Imagine if your clients woke up one morning and found that half the value of the 401(k) plans or IRAs you are managing for them was gone.

That would be pretty shocking — since the devastating financial crisis from which Americans are still recovering wiped out “just” a third of the average value of retirement acounts from market top to March 2009 low point.

But something like that happened just last week in Poland, a nation of more than 38 million, when Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a pension reform that would transfer the assets held in private pension accounts to the state.

A Reuters news report says the move would improve the nation’s balance sheet, reducing public debt by 8%, thus enabling Poland to access international credit markets on more favorable terms.

Poland has a two-tier pension system. The first tier consists of mandatory pay-as-you-go defined contribution accounts to the nation’s Social Security system. The second tier consists of mandatory individual accounts invested through privately managed funds run by companies such as Allianz, ING and AXA.

It is from that second category that the government transfer is occuring—specifically from the private accounts’ bond allocation. Equities, currently about half the value of the private accounts, would remain as assets of the private funds.

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Professor Agnieszka Chlon-DominczakReached for comment, Professor Agnieszka Chlon-Dominczak (left), of the Warsaw School of Economics’ Institute of Statistics and Demography, said the move will weaken trust in Poland’s Social Security system.

“I expect that people will seek ways to reduce their contributions,” Chlon-Dominczak told ThinkAdvisor. “We have a system that in general makes it very difficult not to contribute. If someone works officially, he is automatically covered by social insurance.”

But, she warned, more affluent Poles will likely look to stash more of their wealth in individual retirement accounts outside the mandatory system, “which in the future may lead to a further rise of inequalities,” the Polish economist says.

The move, Chlon-Dominczak says, has regional repercussions and should not spark anxiety among U.S.-based investors.

“I think that Polish actions, similarly to the ones we have seen in Hungary, set a bad precedent in the region, she says. "In the case of America, I would not worry—their ownership rights on private savings are not questionable.”

Paweł Strzelecki, another professor at the Warsaw School of Economics reached by ThinkAdvisor, offered a practical and contrarian spin on the Polish government pension proposal.

“If the system will be reformed there will be increased supply of shares of good Polish firms…on the Polish stock exchange,” he said. “So I see here the opportunity to buy good shares [at] a discount.

“In the short term this reform should  also increase the financial standing of the Polish government,” he added. 

Markets appear to have come around to Professor Strzelecki’s thinking. The WIG20—the Warsaw Stock Exchange’s 20 largest stocks by market capitalization—which initially reacted on Thursday with its biggest decline in two years, fully recovered the loss by the end of Monday’s trading.

And while the 10-year Polish government bond yields initially soared 20 basis points after the announcement to 4.94%, by Monday’s close the yield had fallen to 4.67%, or 7 basis points lower than Thursday’s starting point.

The Polish asset transfer, what some commentators and bloggers are calling a government confiscation of private wealth without compensation, seems to have attracted less international press attention than a move by the smaller European island nation of Cyprus in March to levy bank deposits. The government eventually backed off of initial plans to tax even accounts holding less than 100,000 euros, placing instead a heavier burden on accounts holding more than that amount.

Commentators at the time worried aloud that the move would set a precedent for other indebted nations to seize private assets. Separately, conservative and liberal bloggers have traded radical ideas, condemning U.S. 401(k) accounts, from opposite perspectives.

We invite readers’ thoughts on the safety of U.S. retirement savings.

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Check out Kill Your 401(k), Conservative Author Says on ThinkAdvisor.